Evidence

Every published state has a real artifact.

This surface is generated from the live publish artifacts in /data, the replay archive, and the raw earthquake and tornado ledgers. No sample hashes, no synthetic gate records, no fabricated provenance.

Updated 2026-04-15T20:43:04.964932Z · Replayable artifacts: 191

Earthquake

57.6%
Current published state
Forecast IDeq_fcst_20260415_1900
GatePass
Replay readyYes

Hurricane

0.0%
Current published state
Forecast IDhu_fcst_20260415_1253
GatePass
Replay readyYes

Tornado

32.0%
Current published state
Forecast IDto_fcst_20260415_2043
GatePass
Replay readyYes
263
Raw chain rows audited
0
Prev-hash mismatches
194/194
Provenance coverage
191
Replay artifacts

Prediction ledger

Recent append-only and archive-backed forecast records, newest first.

Forecast IDHazardIssuedProbabilityHashArtifact
to_fcst_20260415_2043Tornado2026-04-15T20:43:04Z32.0%19432b4e..74907762Replay
to_fcst_20260415_1910Tornado2026-04-15T19:10:58Z28.9%4fb444bf..406267ceReplay
eq_fcst_20260415_1900Earthquake2026-04-15T19:00:00Z57.6%e803482a..9d96628fReplay
to_fcst_20260415_1659Tornado2026-04-15T16:59:06Z26.9%88466884..a32bf978Replay
to_fcst_20260415_1503Tornado2026-04-15T15:03:31Z25.0%c11a11d3..a531169aReplay
eq_fcst_20260415_1400Earthquake2026-04-15T14:00:00Z57.6%d05d6298..636eb87eReplay
to_fcst_20260415_1317Tornado2026-04-15T13:17:20Z27.3%2e40eb3c..5dcf4890Replay
hu_fcst_20260415_1253Hurricane2026-04-15T12:53:33Z0.0%6b364d60..5ecaafecReplay
to_fcst_20260415_1056Tornado2026-04-15T10:56:12Z37.8%0bd04cf2..8d7ad90eReplay
to_fcst_20260415_0916Tornado2026-04-15T09:16:01Z39.5%c4b0c4b7..03961277Replay
eq_fcst_20260415_0800Earthquake2026-04-15T08:00:00Z57.6%03ff94ca..5f9af283Replay
to_fcst_20260415_0755Tornado2026-04-15T07:55:36Z50.0%79898ca8..574d20caReplay
Download prediction ledger

Provenance envelopes

Hashes are computed from the actual published replay artifacts and their source manifests.

prov_to_fcst_20260415_2043

Forecastto_fcst_20260415_2043
Input hash89757b9b..3bc7ad8d
Output hashadcf0108..581c8245
Signed2026-04-15T20:43:04Z

Sources: ProbSevere storm objects, published live tornado snapshot, HRRR analysis

prov_to_fcst_20260415_1910

Forecastto_fcst_20260415_1910
Input hash38b149a3..8e8b4b51
Output hash8fc0c74f..9f05bbfa
Signed2026-04-15T19:10:58Z

Sources: ProbSevere storm objects, published live tornado snapshot, HRRR analysis

prov_eq_fcst_20260415_1900

Forecasteq_fcst_20260415_1900
Input hash3a5d28dc..cfc65bbe
Output hash11517a51..6ae36561
Signed2026-04-15T19:00:00Z

Sources: USGS FDSNWS

prov_to_fcst_20260415_1659

Forecastto_fcst_20260415_1659
Input hash488b74db..a6b320b2
Output hashf185065d..9a7020bc
Signed2026-04-15T16:59:06Z

Sources: ProbSevere storm objects, published live tornado snapshot, HRRR analysis

prov_to_fcst_20260415_1503

Forecastto_fcst_20260415_1503
Input hasha1a5965a..21ceb2d8
Output hash3aa5009e..500f2c9e
Signed2026-04-15T15:03:31Z

Sources: ProbSevere storm objects, published live tornado snapshot, HRRR analysis

prov_eq_fcst_20260415_1400

Forecasteq_fcst_20260415_1400
Input hash4e7dff6a..bc86362a
Output hash03c3809f..b7e0ed2a
Signed2026-04-15T14:00:00Z

Sources: USGS FDSNWS

Download provenance envelopes

Gate decisions

Current warnings are derived from the live publish state, not hardcoded examples.

Decision IDHazardDecisionWarningsIssued
gdec_to_fcst_20260415_2043Tornadopassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T20:43:04Z
gdec_to_fcst_20260415_1910Tornadopassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T19:10:58Z
gdec_eq_fcst_20260415_1900Earthquakepassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T19:00:00Z
gdec_to_fcst_20260415_1659Tornadopassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T16:59:06Z
gdec_to_fcst_20260415_1503Tornadopassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T15:03:31Z
gdec_eq_fcst_20260415_1400Earthquakepassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T14:00:00Z
gdec_to_fcst_20260415_1317Tornadopassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T13:17:20Z
gdec_hu_fcst_20260415_1253Hurricanepassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T12:53:33Z
gdec_to_fcst_20260415_1056Tornadopassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T10:56:12Z
gdec_to_fcst_20260415_0916Tornadopassconfidence_interval_unavailable2026-04-15T09:16:01Z
Download gate decisions

Replay index

Frozen publish artifacts that can be fetched directly through the public API.

Forecast IDArtifact
eq_fcst_20260313_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260313_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260402_0000/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260402_0000.json
eq_fcst_20260402_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260402_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260403_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260403_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260404_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260404_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260404_0700/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260404_0700.json
eq_fcst_20260404_1300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260404_1300.json
eq_fcst_20260404_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260404_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260405_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260405_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260405_0700/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260405_0700.json
eq_fcst_20260405_1300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260405_1300.json
eq_fcst_20260405_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260405_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260406_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260406_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260406_0800/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260406_0800.json
eq_fcst_20260406_1300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260406_1300.json
eq_fcst_20260406_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260406_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260407_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260407_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260407_0700/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260407_0700.json
eq_fcst_20260407_1400/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260407_1400.json
eq_fcst_20260407_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260407_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260408_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260408_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260408_0700/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260408_0700.json
eq_fcst_20260408_1400/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260408_1400.json
eq_fcst_20260408_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260408_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260409_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260409_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260409_0700/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260409_0700.json
eq_fcst_20260409_1400/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260409_1400.json
eq_fcst_20260409_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260409_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260410_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260410_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260410_0800/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260410_0800.json
eq_fcst_20260410_1300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260410_1300.json
eq_fcst_20260410_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260410_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260411_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260411_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260411_0700/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260411_0700.json
eq_fcst_20260411_1300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260411_1300.json
eq_fcst_20260411_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260411_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260412_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260412_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260412_0700/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260412_0700.json
eq_fcst_20260412_1300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260412_1300.json
eq_fcst_20260412_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260412_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260413_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260413_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260414_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260414_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260414_0800/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260414_0800.json
eq_fcst_20260414_1400/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260414_1400.json
eq_fcst_20260414_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260414_1900.json
eq_fcst_20260415_0300/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260415_0300.json
eq_fcst_20260415_0800/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260415_0800.json
eq_fcst_20260415_1400/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260415_1400.json
eq_fcst_20260415_1900/data/replay/eq_fcst_20260415_1900.json
hu_fcst_20260313_0300/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260313_0300.json
hu_fcst_20260402_1722/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260402_1722.json
hu_fcst_20260413_0141/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260413_0141.json
hu_fcst_20260413_0143/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260413_0143.json
hu_fcst_20260413_0144/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260413_0144.json
hu_fcst_20260413_0242/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260413_0242.json
hu_fcst_20260413_0244/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260413_0244.json
hu_fcst_20260413_1501/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260413_1501.json
hu_fcst_20260413_1503/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260413_1503.json
hu_fcst_20260414_1254/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260414_1254.json
hu_fcst_20260415_1253/data/replay/hu_fcst_20260415_1253.json
to_fcst_20260313_0300/data/replay/to_fcst_20260313_0300.json
to_fcst_20260403_1841/data/replay/to_fcst_20260403_1841.json
to_fcst_20260403_2031/data/replay/to_fcst_20260403_2031.json
to_fcst_20260403_2229/data/replay/to_fcst_20260403_2229.json
to_fcst_20260404_0152/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_0152.json
to_fcst_20260404_0414/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_0414.json
to_fcst_20260404_0656/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_0656.json
to_fcst_20260404_0837/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_0837.json
to_fcst_20260404_1029/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_1029.json
to_fcst_20260404_1246/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_1246.json
to_fcst_20260404_1431/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_1431.json
to_fcst_20260404_1631/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_1631.json
to_fcst_20260404_1836/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_1836.json
to_fcst_20260404_2026/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_2026.json
to_fcst_20260404_2226/data/replay/to_fcst_20260404_2226.json
to_fcst_20260405_0205/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_0205.json
to_fcst_20260405_0543/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_0543.json
to_fcst_20260405_0700/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_0700.json
to_fcst_20260405_0838/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_0838.json
to_fcst_20260405_1029/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_1029.json
to_fcst_20260405_1250/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_1250.json
to_fcst_20260405_1432/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_1432.json
to_fcst_20260405_1632/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_1632.json
to_fcst_20260405_1838/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_1838.json
to_fcst_20260405_2028/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_2028.json
to_fcst_20260405_2227/data/replay/to_fcst_20260405_2227.json
to_fcst_20260406_0206/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_0206.json
to_fcst_20260406_0557/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_0557.json
to_fcst_20260406_0746/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_0746.json
to_fcst_20260406_0904/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_0904.json
to_fcst_20260406_1052/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_1052.json
to_fcst_20260406_1302/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_1302.json
to_fcst_20260406_1442/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_1442.json
to_fcst_20260406_1641/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_1641.json
to_fcst_20260406_1853/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_1853.json
to_fcst_20260406_2034/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_2034.json
to_fcst_20260406_2232/data/replay/to_fcst_20260406_2232.json
to_fcst_20260407_0202/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_0202.json
to_fcst_20260407_0545/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_0545.json
to_fcst_20260407_0710/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_0710.json
to_fcst_20260407_0857/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_0857.json
to_fcst_20260407_1052/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_1052.json
to_fcst_20260407_1311/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_1311.json
to_fcst_20260407_1504/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_1504.json
to_fcst_20260407_1653/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_1653.json
to_fcst_20260407_1858/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_1858.json
to_fcst_20260407_2042/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_2042.json
to_fcst_20260407_2234/data/replay/to_fcst_20260407_2234.json
to_fcst_20260408_0203/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_0203.json
to_fcst_20260408_0545/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_0545.json
to_fcst_20260408_0712/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_0712.json
to_fcst_20260408_0857/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_0857.json
to_fcst_20260408_1053/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_1053.json
to_fcst_20260408_1313/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_1313.json
to_fcst_20260408_1506/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_1506.json
to_fcst_20260408_1657/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_1657.json
to_fcst_20260408_1911/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_1911.json
to_fcst_20260408_2038/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_2038.json
to_fcst_20260408_2235/data/replay/to_fcst_20260408_2235.json
to_fcst_20260409_0155/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_0155.json
to_fcst_20260409_0431/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_0431.json
to_fcst_20260409_0716/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_0716.json
to_fcst_20260409_0903/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_0903.json
to_fcst_20260409_1055/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_1055.json
to_fcst_20260409_1318/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_1318.json
to_fcst_20260409_1519/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_1519.json
to_fcst_20260409_1703/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_1703.json
to_fcst_20260409_1900/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_1900.json
to_fcst_20260409_2044/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_2044.json
to_fcst_20260409_2237/data/replay/to_fcst_20260409_2237.json
to_fcst_20260410_0208/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_0208.json
to_fcst_20260410_0555/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_0555.json
to_fcst_20260410_0722/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_0722.json
to_fcst_20260410_0904/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_0904.json
to_fcst_20260410_1050/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_1050.json
to_fcst_20260410_1301/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_1301.json
to_fcst_20260410_1444/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_1444.json
to_fcst_20260410_1645/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_1645.json
to_fcst_20260410_1845/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_1845.json
to_fcst_20260410_2032/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_2032.json
to_fcst_20260410_2233/data/replay/to_fcst_20260410_2233.json
to_fcst_20260411_0156/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_0156.json
to_fcst_20260411_0422/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_0422.json
to_fcst_20260411_0656/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_0656.json
to_fcst_20260411_0838/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_0838.json
to_fcst_20260411_1030/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_1030.json
to_fcst_20260411_1250/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_1250.json
to_fcst_20260411_1433/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_1433.json
to_fcst_20260411_1632/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_1632.json
to_fcst_20260411_1839/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_1839.json
to_fcst_20260411_2028/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_2028.json
to_fcst_20260411_2228/data/replay/to_fcst_20260411_2228.json
to_fcst_20260412_0210/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_0210.json
to_fcst_20260412_0552/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_0552.json
to_fcst_20260412_0709/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_0709.json
to_fcst_20260412_0842/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_0842.json
to_fcst_20260412_1035/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_1035.json
to_fcst_20260412_1254/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_1254.json
to_fcst_20260412_1437/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_1437.json
to_fcst_20260412_1634/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_1634.json
to_fcst_20260412_1841/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_1841.json
to_fcst_20260412_2031/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_2031.json
to_fcst_20260412_2229/data/replay/to_fcst_20260412_2229.json
to_fcst_20260413_0214/data/replay/to_fcst_20260413_0214.json
to_fcst_20260413_1318/data/replay/to_fcst_20260413_1318.json
to_fcst_20260413_1513/data/replay/to_fcst_20260413_1513.json
to_fcst_20260413_1700/data/replay/to_fcst_20260413_1700.json
to_fcst_20260413_1909/data/replay/to_fcst_20260413_1909.json
to_fcst_20260413_2050/data/replay/to_fcst_20260413_2050.json
to_fcst_20260413_2240/data/replay/to_fcst_20260413_2240.json
to_fcst_20260414_0209/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_0209.json
to_fcst_20260414_0558/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_0558.json
to_fcst_20260414_0755/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_0755.json
to_fcst_20260414_0915/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_0915.json
to_fcst_20260414_1059/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_1059.json
to_fcst_20260414_1318/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_1318.json
to_fcst_20260414_1510/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_1510.json
to_fcst_20260414_1702/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_1702.json
to_fcst_20260414_1908/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_1908.json
to_fcst_20260414_2050/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_2050.json
to_fcst_20260414_2241/data/replay/to_fcst_20260414_2241.json
to_fcst_20260415_0206/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_0206.json
to_fcst_20260415_0558/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_0558.json
to_fcst_20260415_0755/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_0755.json
to_fcst_20260415_0916/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_0916.json
to_fcst_20260415_1056/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_1056.json
to_fcst_20260415_1317/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_1317.json
to_fcst_20260415_1503/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_1503.json
to_fcst_20260415_1659/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_1659.json
to_fcst_20260415_1910/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_1910.json
to_fcst_20260415_2043/data/replay/to_fcst_20260415_2043.json
Download replay index