HazardPulse
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Global Tornado Monitor
24-hour tornado formation probability for the world's most active severe convection zones. Ranked by composite STP/SCP indices with full evidence.
What should I do?
There are currently 81 storm cells being tracked. Monitor weather.gov for official warnings in your area. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor.
Global tornado activity map
Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.
Tornado cell
Tornado-prone region
Your location
Storm locations
Active ProbSevere storm objects. Click markers for details.
Last updateWed, 15 Apr 2026 20:43:04 UTC (every 2 hr)
Scoring modelAnalytic coherence model (physics-only, no ML)
Active storms81 storms
Coherence sourceHRRR 80 km grid
Active storms by tornado probability
ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.
1Upper MidwestHIGH32.0% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276523High42.30 N, 92.76 W | CAPE 1837 J/kg | SRH 149 | AzShear 0.020032.0%
Threat brief
Upper Midwest
This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
HIGH
32.0%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.
Strong rotation 0.020 s^-1
MUCAPE 1837 J/kg
LocationUpper Midwest42.30 N, 92.76 W
Storm motion+12.6E / -1.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276523Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276523
This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
High
32.0%
42.296 N, 92.757 W
Strong rotation 0.020 s^-1
MUCAPE 1837 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.296 N, 92.757 W
LocationUpper Midwest
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion28 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1837 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH149 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear58 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0200 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.75 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate19 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability32.0%
Analytic coherence model32.0%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)149 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1837 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~35% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.4)
275 mi N of Columbus, OHHIGH31.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276625High41.04 N, 83.15 W | CAPE 2169 J/kg | SRH 142 | AzShear 0.011031.2%
Threat brief
75 mi N of Columbus, OH
This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
HIGH
31.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.
Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1
MUCAPE 2169 J/kg
Flash rate 30/min
Location75 mi N of Columbus, OH41.04 N, 83.15 W
Storm motion+14.5E / -3.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276625Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276625
This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
High
31.2%
41.036 N, 83.151 W
Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1
MUCAPE 2169 J/kg
Flash rate 30/min
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.036 N, 83.151 W
Location75 mi N of Columbus, OH
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion33 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2169 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH142 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear52 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.7 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0110 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.62 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate30 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability31.2%
Analytic coherence model31.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)142 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2169 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~34% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.7)
- Active lightning (30/min) indicates strong updraft
3Northeast USELEVATED26.9% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276684Moderate42.38 N, 79.11 W | CAPE 408 J/kg | SRH 65 | AzShear 0.012026.9%
Threat brief
Northeast US
This storm has strong rotation detected.
ELEVATED
26.9%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.
Strong rotation 0.012 s^-1
LocationNortheast US42.38 N, 79.11 W
Storm motion+11.6E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276684Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276684
This storm has strong rotation detected. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
26.9%
42.376 N, 79.107 W
Strong rotation 0.012 s^-1
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.376 N, 79.107 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion26 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE408 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH65 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear45 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.2 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0120 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.21 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability26.9%
Analytic coherence model26.9%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)65 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)408 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~30% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
447 mi E of Detroit, MIELEVATED25.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276398Moderate42.17 N, 82.38 W | CAPE 1059 J/kg | SRH 149 | AzShear 0.009025.8%
Threat brief
47 mi E of Detroit, MI
This storm has moderate rotation detected.
ELEVATED
25.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.
Rotation 0.009 s^-1
MUCAPE 1059 J/kg
Location47 mi E of Detroit, MI42.17 N, 82.38 W
Storm motion+14.1E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276398Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276398
This storm has moderate rotation detected. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
25.8%
42.173 N, 82.383 W
Rotation 0.009 s^-1
MUCAPE 1059 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.173 N, 82.383 W
Location47 mi E of Detroit, MI
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion33 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length5 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1059 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH149 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear51 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0090 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.25 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate9 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability25.8%
Analytic coherence model25.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)149 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1059 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
5Upper MidwestELEVATED21.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276382Moderate43.11 N, 91.62 W | CAPE 1198 J/kg | SRH 71 | AzShear 0.009021.4%
Threat brief
Upper Midwest
This storm has moderate rotation detected.
ELEVATED
21.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.009 s^-1
MUCAPE 1198 J/kg
Flash rate 34/min
LocationUpper Midwest43.11 N, 91.62 W
Storm motion+12.3E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276382Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276382
This storm has moderate rotation detected. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
21.4%
43.108 N, 91.617 W
Rotation 0.009 s^-1
MUCAPE 1198 J/kg
Flash rate 34/min
Location & Timing
Coordinates43.108 N, 91.617 W
LocationUpper Midwest
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion28 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length5 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1198 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH71 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear58 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.8 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0090 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.58 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate34 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability21.4%
Analytic coherence model21.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)71 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1198 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Active lightning (34/min) indicates strong updraft
686 mi S of Detroit, MIELEVATED20.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276633Moderate41.24 N, 83.66 W | CAPE 1671 J/kg | SRH 170 | AzShear 0.007020.6%
Threat brief
86 mi S of Detroit, MI
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.
ELEVATED
20.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.007 s^-1
MUCAPE 1671 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 170
Flash rate 21/min
Location86 mi S of Detroit, MI41.24 N, 83.66 W
Storm motion+16.5E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276633Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276633
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
20.6%
41.241 N, 83.662 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1
MUCAPE 1671 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 170
Flash rate 21/min
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.241 N, 83.662 W
Location86 mi S of Detroit, MI
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion37 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1671 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH170 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear57 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.5 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)1.15 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate21 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability20.6%
Analytic coherence model20.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)170 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1671 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~23% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1671, SRH 170)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.5)
- Active lightning (21/min) indicates strong updraft
737 mi W of Akron, OHELEVATED19.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276429Moderate41.34 N, 81.99 W | CAPE 1753 J/kg | SRH 115 | AzShear 0.008019.4%
Threat brief
37 mi W of Akron, OH
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
ELEVATED
19.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.008 s^-1
MUCAPE 1753 J/kg
Flash rate 28/min
Location37 mi W of Akron, OH41.34 N, 81.99 W
Storm motion+14.7E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276429Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276429
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
19.4%
41.344 N, 81.991 W
Rotation 0.008 s^-1
MUCAPE 1753 J/kg
Flash rate 28/min
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.344 N, 81.991 W
Location37 mi W of Akron, OH
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion35 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length4 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1753 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH115 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear54 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.8 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0080 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.66 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate28 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability19.4%
Analytic coherence model19.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)115 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1753 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~21% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.8)
- Active lightning (28/min) indicates strong updraft
843 mi W of Tulsa, OKELEVATED18.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276569Moderate36.43 N, 96.55 W | CAPE 3146 J/kg | SRH 78 | AzShear 0.008018.2%
Threat brief
43 mi W of Tulsa, OK
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
ELEVATED
18.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.008 s^-1
MUCAPE 3146 J/kg
Location43 mi W of Tulsa, OK36.43 N, 96.55 W
Storm motion+10.8E / -12.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276569Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276569
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
18.2%
36.428 N, 96.549 W
Rotation 0.008 s^-1
MUCAPE 3146 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.428 N, 96.549 W
Location43 mi W of Tulsa, OK
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion36 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3146 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH78 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear56 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0080 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.97 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate16 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability18.2%
Analytic coherence model18.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)78 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3146 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~20% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.1)
948 mi N of Tulsa, OKELEVATED18.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276649Moderate36.84 N, 95.89 W | CAPE 3165 J/kg | SRH 81 | AzShear 0.008018.2%
Threat brief
48 mi N of Tulsa, OK
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
ELEVATED
18.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.008 s^-1
MUCAPE 3165 J/kg
Location48 mi N of Tulsa, OK36.84 N, 95.89 W
Storm motion+10.5E / -10.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276649Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276649
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
18.2%
36.835 N, 95.891 W
Rotation 0.008 s^-1
MUCAPE 3165 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.835 N, 95.891 W
Location48 mi N of Tulsa, OK
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion32 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3165 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH81 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear51 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.2 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0080 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)1.07 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate16 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability18.2%
Analytic coherence model18.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)81 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3165 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~20% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.2)
1038 mi N of Tulsa, OKELEVATED18.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276698Moderate36.69 N, 96.12 W | CAPE 3129 J/kg | SRH 58 | AzShear 0.008018.2%
Threat brief
38 mi N of Tulsa, OK
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
ELEVATED
18.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.008 s^-1
MUCAPE 3129 J/kg
Location38 mi N of Tulsa, OK36.69 N, 96.12 W
Storm motion+10.4E / -10.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276698Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276698
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
18.2%
36.691 N, 96.120 W
Rotation 0.008 s^-1
MUCAPE 3129 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.691 N, 96.120 W
Location38 mi N of Tulsa, OK
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion32 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3129 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH58 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear49 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.5 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0080 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.35 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate3 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability18.2%
Analytic coherence model18.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)58 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3129 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~20% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.5)
11Central USELEVATED17.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276473Moderate41.92 N, 93.46 W | CAPE 2385 J/kg | SRH 134 | AzShear 0.007017.8%
Threat brief
Central US
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
ELEVATED
17.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.007 s^-1
MUCAPE 2385 J/kg
Flash rate 25/min
LocationCentral US41.92 N, 93.46 W
Storm motion+9.8E / -3.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276473Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276473
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
17.8%
41.917 N, 93.459 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1
MUCAPE 2385 J/kg
Flash rate 25/min
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.917 N, 93.459 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion23 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2385 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH134 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear55 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.8 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.56 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate25 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability17.8%
Analytic coherence model17.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)134 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2385 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~20% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.8)
- Active lightning (25/min) indicates strong updraft
1240 mi S of Detroit, MIELEVATED16.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276669Moderate41.78 N, 83.21 W | CAPE 1367 J/kg | SRH 119 | AzShear 0.007016.7%
Threat brief
40 mi S of Detroit, MI
This storm has moderate rotation detected.
ELEVATED
16.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.007 s^-1
MUCAPE 1367 J/kg
Flash rate 25/min
Location40 mi S of Detroit, MI41.78 N, 83.21 W
Storm motion+16.9E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276669Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276669
This storm has moderate rotation detected. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
16.7%
41.777 N, 83.210 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1
MUCAPE 1367 J/kg
Flash rate 25/min
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.777 N, 83.210 W
Location40 mi S of Detroit, MI
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion38 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1367 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH119 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear51 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.26 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate25 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability16.7%
Analytic coherence model16.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)119 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1367 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
- Active lightning (25/min) indicates strong updraft
1360 mi N of Tulsa, OKELEVATED16.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276438Moderate36.88 N, 95.52 W | CAPE 3143 J/kg | SRH 158 | AzShear 0.006016.7%
Threat brief
60 mi N of Tulsa, OK
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.
ELEVATED
16.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.
Rotation 0.006 s^-1
MUCAPE 3143 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 158
Location60 mi N of Tulsa, OK36.88 N, 95.52 W
Storm motion+11.9E / -11.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276438Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276438
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Moderate
16.7%
36.879 N, 95.517 W
Rotation 0.006 s^-1
MUCAPE 3143 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 158
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.879 N, 95.517 W
Location60 mi N of Tulsa, OK
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion36 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length4 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3143 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH158 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear54 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate4.2 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.82 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate13 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability16.7%
Analytic coherence model16.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)158 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3143 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~18% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 3143, SRH 158)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 4.2)
1470 mi S of Detroit, MIMODERATE14.5% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276748Low41.38 N, 83.41 W | CAPE 1865 J/kg | SRH 126 | AzShear 0.006014.5%
Threat brief
70 mi S of Detroit, MI
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
MODERATE
14.5%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Low risk. No immediate action needed. Stay generally weather-aware.
Rotation 0.006 s^-1
MUCAPE 1865 J/kg
Location70 mi S of Detroit, MI41.38 N, 83.41 W
Storm motion+16.4E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276748Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276748
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Low
14.5%
41.384 N, 83.410 W
Rotation 0.006 s^-1
MUCAPE 1865 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.384 N, 83.410 W
Location70 mi S of Detroit, MI
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion37 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1865 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH126 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear53 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.04 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability14.5%
Analytic coherence model14.5%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)126 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1865 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~16% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.1)
15Central USMODERATE13.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276586Low41.49 N, 94.24 W | CAPE 2643 J/kg | SRH 112 | AzShear 0.006013.7%
Threat brief
Central US
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.
MODERATE
13.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Low risk. No immediate action needed. Stay generally weather-aware.
Rotation 0.006 s^-1
MUCAPE 2643 J/kg
LocationCentral US41.49 N, 94.24 W
Storm motion+8.3E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276586Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276586
This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Low
13.7%
41.487 N, 94.237 W
Rotation 0.006 s^-1
MUCAPE 2643 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.487 N, 94.237 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion22 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2643 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH112 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear56 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.6 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.38 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability13.7%
Analytic coherence model13.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)112 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2643 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~15% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.6)
1692 mi N of Columbus, OHMODERATE12.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276496Low41.05 N, 83.77 W | CAPE 1939 J/kg | SRH 169 | AzShear 0.004012.4%
Threat brief
92 mi N of Columbus, OH
This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.
MODERATE
12.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Low risk. No immediate action needed. Stay generally weather-aware.
MUCAPE 1939 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 169
Location92 mi N of Columbus, OH41.05 N, 83.77 W
Storm motion+16.4E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276496Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276496
This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Low
12.4%
41.054 N, 83.769 W
MUCAPE 1939 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 169
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.054 N, 83.769 W
Location92 mi N of Columbus, OH
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion37 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1939 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH169 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear58 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.9 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.25 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate5 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability12.4%
Analytic coherence model12.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)169 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1939 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~14% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1939, SRH 169)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.9)
17Central USMODERATE11.9% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276459Low37.69 N, 95.17 W | CAPE 3456 J/kg | SRH 159 | AzShear 0.004011.9%
Threat brief
Central US
This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.
MODERATE
11.9%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Low risk. No immediate action needed. Stay generally weather-aware.
MUCAPE 3456 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 159
LocationCentral US37.69 N, 95.17 W
Storm motion+10.4E / -10.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276459Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276459
This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Low
11.9%
37.693 N, 95.169 W
MUCAPE 3456 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 159
Location & Timing
Coordinates37.693 N, 95.169 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion32 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length4 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3456 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH159 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear64 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate4.2 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)1.57 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate19 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability11.9%
Analytic coherence model11.9%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)159 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3456 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~13% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 3456, SRH 159)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 4.2)
1876 mi N of Tulsa, OKMODERATE11.5% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276636Low37.16 N, 95.54 W | CAPE 3384 J/kg | SRH 152 | AzShear 0.004011.5%
Threat brief
76 mi N of Tulsa, OK
This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.
MODERATE
11.5%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Low risk. No immediate action needed. Stay generally weather-aware.
MUCAPE 3384 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 152
Location76 mi N of Tulsa, OK37.16 N, 95.54 W
Storm motion+11.8E / -10.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276636Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276636
This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Low
11.5%
37.164 N, 95.541 W
MUCAPE 3384 J/kg
0-1 km SRH 152
Location & Timing
Coordinates37.164 N, 95.541 W
Location76 mi N of Tulsa, OK
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion35 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3384 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH152 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear60 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate4.1 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.35 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability11.5%
Analytic coherence model11.5%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)152 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3384 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~13% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 3384, SRH 152)
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 4.1)
19Upper MidwestMODERATE11.5% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276639Low42.78 N, 92.29 W | CAPE 1015 J/kg | SRH 111 | AzShear 0.005011.5%
Threat brief
Upper Midwest
No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.
MODERATE
11.5%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Low risk. No immediate action needed. Stay generally weather-aware.
MUCAPE 1015 J/kg
LocationUpper Midwest42.78 N, 92.29 W
Storm motion+12.7E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276639Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276639
No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Low
11.5%
42.779 N, 92.295 W
MUCAPE 1015 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.779 N, 92.295 W
LocationUpper Midwest
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion29 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1015 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH111 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear59 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.0 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.40 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate12 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability11.5%
Analytic coherence model11.5%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)111 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1015 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.0)
2036 mi W of Detroit, MIMODERATE11.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTCStorm 276399Low42.11 N, 83.52 W | CAPE 1031 J/kg | SRH 110 | AzShear 0.005011.4%
Threat brief
36 mi W of Detroit, MI
No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.
MODERATE
11.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do
Low risk. No immediate action needed. Stay generally weather-aware.
MUCAPE 1031 J/kg
Location36 mi W of Detroit, MI42.11 N, 83.52 W
Storm motion+17.5E / -1.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID276399Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown
Storm 276399
No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.
Low
11.4%
42.109 N, 83.521 W
MUCAPE 1031 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.109 N, 83.521 W
Location36 mi W of Detroit, MI
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Storm motion39 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length5 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1031 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH110 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear50 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.0 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)nan (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)nan
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)nan
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)nan
S / Gamma rationan (Damping dominant)
Damkohler numbernan
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation
Weak coherence (tau=nan) - limited atmospheric organization.
Low source/damping ratio (nan) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.
Model Confidence
Combined probability11.4%
Analytic coherence model11.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)110 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1031 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
- Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.0)
Top storm -- coherence diagnostics
Storm 276523 -- Coherence fields
32.0%
Tornado probability
taunan
grad_taunan
torsionnan
alignmentnan
S_fieldnan
Gamma_fieldnan
S / Gammanan
Da (Damkohler)nan
E_cohnan
Singularity count0.0000
Singularity analysis
Conditions met0 / 5
s_over_gammano
high_gradientno
high_torsionno
positive_alignmentno
high_damkohlerno
Storm parameters
Location42.2964, -92.7571
CAPE1837 J/kg
0-1km SRH149 m^2/s^2
Eff. bulk shear58 kt
MaxLLAz0.0200 /s
Valid time2026-04-15 20:30:38 UTC
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
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