Global tornado activity map

Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.

Tornado cell Tornado-prone region Your location

Storm locations

Active ProbSevere storm objects. Click markers for details.

Interactive map requires JavaScript

Visit the tornado monitor for a static view of active storms.

Last updateWed, 15 Jul 2026 05:01:24 UTC (every 2 hr)

Scoring modelML (pre-trained gradient-boosted trees)

Active storms98 storms

Coherence sourceHRRR 80 km grid

Active storms by tornado probability

ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.

1Northeast USCRITICAL2.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911508Very High45.65 N, 71.01 W | CAPE 1914 J/kg | SRH 205 | AzShear 0.00202.1%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL

2.1%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 2.0%-2.1%)

What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1914 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 205

LocationNortheast US45.65 N, 71.01 W

Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911508Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911508

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High

2.1%

45.646 N, 71.014 W

MUCAPE 1914 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 205

Location & Timing

Coordinates45.646 N, 71.014 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion8 mph E

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1914 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH205 m^2/s^2 (High)

Effective bulk shear60 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate3.5 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.05 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3346 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1803

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-18.2318

S / Gamma ratio7.46 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number9.91

Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.33) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (7.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Model Confidence

Combined probability2.1%

Analytic coherence model2.1%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)205 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1914 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1914, SRH 205)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.5)

2Northeast USCRITICAL2.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 910895Very High43.85 N, 70.59 W | CAPE 2431 J/kg | SRH 174 | AzShear 0.00402.1%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL

2.1%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 2.0%-2.1%)

What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2431 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 174 3/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US43.85 N, 70.59 W

Storm motion+5.3E / +2.9SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID910895Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 910895

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High

2.1%

43.855 N, 70.593 W

MUCAPE 2431 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 174 3/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates43.855 N, 70.593 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion14 mph ESE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length3 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE2431 J/kg (High)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH174 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)

Effective bulk shear51 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate3.8 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.20 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8485 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5447

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-7.5385

S / Gamma ratio3.41 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number22.02

Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.85) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence

Combined probability2.1%

Analytic coherence model2.1%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)174 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)2431 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 2431, SRH 174)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.8)
Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

3Northeast USCRITICAL0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911428Very High45.01 N, 74.85 W | CAPE 2892 J/kg | SRH 68 | AzShear 0.00400.7%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL

0.7%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)

What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2892 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US45.01 N, 74.85 W

Storm motion+3.5E / +1.6SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911428Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911428

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High

0.7%

45.007 N, 74.850 W

MUCAPE 2892 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates45.007 N, 74.850 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion9 mph ESE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE2892 J/kg (High)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH68 m^2/s^2 (Low)

Effective bulk shear69 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.7 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.32 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate17 /min (Moderate)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6066 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3030

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.8538

S / Gamma ratio3.03 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number17.88

Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.7%

Analytic coherence model0.7%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)68 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)2892 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.7)
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

4Northeast USCRITICAL0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911468Very High44.80 N, 75.01 W | CAPE 2592 J/kg | SRH 137 | AzShear 0.00300.7%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL

0.7%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)

What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2592 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US44.80 N, 75.01 W

Storm motion+3.7E / +1.3SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911468Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911468

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High

0.7%

44.804 N, 75.014 W

MUCAPE 2592 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates44.804 N, 75.014 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion9 mph ESE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE2592 J/kg (High)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH137 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)

Effective bulk shear60 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate3.2 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.54 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate11 /min (Moderate)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6066 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3030

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.8538

S / Gamma ratio3.03 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number17.88

Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.7%

Analytic coherence model0.7%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)137 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)2592 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.2)
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

5Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911509High45.14 N, 74.72 W | CAPE 2961 J/kg | SRH 60 | AzShear 0.00100.7%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH

0.7%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)

What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2961 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US45.14 N, 74.72 W

Storm motion+3.4E / +1.8SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911509Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911509

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High

0.7%

45.139 N, 74.724 W

MUCAPE 2961 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates45.139 N, 74.724 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion9 mph ESE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE2961 J/kg (High)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH60 m^2/s^2 (Low)

Effective bulk shear70 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.6 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.00 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6066 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3030

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.8538

S / Gamma ratio3.03 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number17.88

Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.7%

Analytic coherence model0.7%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)60 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)2961 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.6)
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

6Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911120High47.37 N, 69.52 W | CAPE 1421 J/kg | SRH 114 | AzShear 0.00400.7%

Threat brief

Northeast US

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

HIGH

0.7%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)

What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1421 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US47.37 N, 69.52 W

Storm motion+4.1E / +3.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911120Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911120

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High

0.7%

47.366 N, 69.520 W

MUCAPE 1421 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates47.366 N, 69.520 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion12 mph SE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length2 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1421 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH114 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)

Effective bulk shear49 kt (High)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.28 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.0640 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4337

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)-0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-0.5218

S / Gamma ratio2.01 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number19.99

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.06) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.7%

Analytic coherence model0.7%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)114 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1421 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)

7Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 909928High44.53 N, 75.26 W | CAPE 3140 J/kg | SRH 124 | AzShear 0.01100.7%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH

0.7%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.7%)

What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1 MUCAPE 3140 J/kg Flash rate 38/min 3/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US44.53 N, 75.26 W

Storm motion+3.9E / +3.1SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID909928Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 909928

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High

0.7%

44.526 N, 75.256 W

Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1 MUCAPE 3140 J/kg Flash rate 38/min 3/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates44.526 N, 75.256 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion11 mph SE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length7 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE3140 J/kg (Extreme)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH124 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)

Effective bulk shear56 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate3.3 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0110 s^-1 (Strong rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)3.39 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate38 /min (Active)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3380 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0971

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)7.6526

S / Gamma ratio1.41 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number36.89

Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.34) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.7%

Analytic coherence model0.7%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)124 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)3140 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.3)
Active lightning (38/min) indicates strong updraft
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

8High PlainsHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911204High47.07 N, 108.00 W | CAPE 1276 J/kg | SRH 128 | AzShear 0.00500.7%

Threat brief

High Plains

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

HIGH

0.7%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.4%-0.7%)

What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1276 J/kg Flash rate 31/min 2/5 singularity conditions

LocationHigh Plains47.07 N, 108.00 W

Storm motion+6.0E / -8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911204Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911204

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High

0.7%

47.067 N, 107.997 W

MUCAPE 1276 J/kg Flash rate 31/min 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates47.067 N, 107.997 W

LocationHigh Plains

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion22 mph NE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length2 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1276 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH128 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)

Effective bulk shear50 kt (High)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.5 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.65 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate31 /min (Active)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6677 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1019

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.1444

S / Gamma ratio1.68 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number12.45

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.67) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.7%

Analytic coherence model0.7%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)128 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1276 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.5)
Active lightning (31/min) indicates strong updraft

9Northeast USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911403High44.87 N, 75.58 W | CAPE 2897 J/kg | SRH 72 | AzShear 0.00200.4%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH

0.4%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)

What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2897 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US44.87 N, 75.58 W

Storm motion+2.6E / -1.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911403Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911403

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High

0.4%

44.874 N, 75.584 W

MUCAPE 2897 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates44.874 N, 75.584 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion6 mph ENE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE2897 J/kg (High)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH72 m^2/s^2 (Low)

Effective bulk shear57 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.9 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.14 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3380 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0971

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)7.6526

S / Gamma ratio1.41 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number36.89

Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.34) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.4%

Analytic coherence model0.4%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)72 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)2897 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.9)
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

10Northeast USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911466High45.93 N, 72.92 W | CAPE 1473 J/kg | SRH 74 | AzShear 0.00000.4%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has coherent wind structure.

HIGH

0.4%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)

What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1473 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US45.93 N, 72.92 W

Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911466Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911466

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High

0.4%

45.926 N, 72.921 W

MUCAPE 1473 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates45.926 N, 72.921 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion8 mph E

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1473 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH74 m^2/s^2 (Low)

Effective bulk shear63 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.0 (Marginal)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.00 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8745 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3907

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)12.3092

S / Gamma ratio2.00 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number15.38

Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.87) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.4%

Analytic coherence model0.4%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)74 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1473 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

1136 mi W of Nashville, TNHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911313High36.33 N, 87.28 W | CAPE 2105 J/kg | SRH 33 | AzShear 0.00200.4%

Threat brief

36 mi W of Nashville, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH

0.4%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)

What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2105 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions

Location36 mi W of Nashville, TN36.33 N, 87.28 W

Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911313Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911313

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High

0.4%

36.329 N, 87.277 W

MUCAPE 2105 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates36.329 N, 87.277 W

Location36 mi W of Nashville, TN

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion8 mph E

Storm size0 km^2

Track length2 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE2105 J/kg (High)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH33 m^2/s^2 (Low)

Effective bulk shear23 kt (Moderate)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate0.4 (Low)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.03 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1163 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0773

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.0531

S / Gamma ratio1.59 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number20.74

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.12) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.4%

Analytic coherence model0.4%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)33 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)2105 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures

12High PlainsHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911505High46.70 N, 107.77 W | CAPE 1654 J/kg | SRH 235 | AzShear 0.00600.4%

Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

HIGH

0.4%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)

What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 1654 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 235 2/5 singularity conditions

LocationHigh Plains46.70 N, 107.77 W

Storm motion+2.6E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911505Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911505

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High

0.4%

46.703 N, 107.773 W

Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 1654 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 235 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates46.703 N, 107.773 W

LocationHigh Plains

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion13 mph NNE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1654 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH235 m^2/s^2 (High)

Effective bulk shear60 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate3.5 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.31 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6677 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1019

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.1444

S / Gamma ratio1.68 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number12.45

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.67) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.4%

Analytic coherence model0.4%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)235 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1654 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1654, SRH 235)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.5)

13High PlainsELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911397Moderate45.75 N, 108.12 W | CAPE 1700 J/kg | SRH 77 | AzShear 0.00700.3%

Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED

0.3%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.3%)

What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 1700 J/kg Flash rate 23/min 2/5 singularity conditions

LocationHigh Plains45.75 N, 108.12 W

Storm motion+6.8E / -7.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911397Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911397

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate

0.3%

45.751 N, 108.124 W

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 1700 J/kg Flash rate 23/min 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates45.751 N, 108.124 W

LocationHigh Plains

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion22 mph NE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1700 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH77 m^2/s^2 (Low)

Effective bulk shear42 kt (High)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.2 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.86 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate23 /min (Active)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6620 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0444

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.6436

S / Gamma ratio0.98 (Near balance)

Damkohler number12.57

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.66) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (1.0) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.3%

Analytic coherence model0.3%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)77 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1700 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.2)
Active lightning (23/min) indicates strong updraft
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)

14High PlainsELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911503Moderate47.45 N, 108.08 W | CAPE 1169 J/kg | SRH 106 | AzShear 0.00100.3%

Threat brief

High Plains

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

ELEVATED

0.3%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.3%)

What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1169 J/kg

LocationHigh Plains47.45 N, 108.08 W

Storm motion+6.0E / -8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911503Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911503

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate

0.3%

47.450 N, 108.076 W

MUCAPE 1169 J/kg

Location & Timing

Coordinates47.450 N, 108.076 W

LocationHigh Plains

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion22 mph NE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1169 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH106 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)

Effective bulk shear39 kt (High)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.07 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.5098 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1910

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.1755

S / Gamma ratio0.82 (Near balance)

Damkohler number11.23

Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.51) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.8) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.3%

Analytic coherence model0.3%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)106 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1169 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)

15Northeast USELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911348Moderate42.36 N, 79.21 W | CAPE 1580 J/kg | SRH 244 | AzShear 0.00100.3%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED

0.3%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.3%)

What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1580 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 244 2/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US42.36 N, 79.21 W

Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911348Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911348

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate

0.3%

42.364 N, 79.215 W

MUCAPE 1580 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 244 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates42.364 N, 79.215 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion8 mph E

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1580 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH244 m^2/s^2 (High)

Effective bulk shear22 kt (Moderate)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.9 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.00 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.7406 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0692

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)13.2589

S / Gamma ratio0.84 (Near balance)

Damkohler number63.81

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.74) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.8) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.3%

Analytic coherence model0.3%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)244 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1580 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1580, SRH 244)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.9)
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)

16High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911453Moderate46.08 N, 108.23 W | CAPE 1650 J/kg | SRH 98 | AzShear 0.01000.2%

Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED

0.2%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)

What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

Rotation 0.010 s^-1 MUCAPE 1650 J/kg Flash rate 26/min 2/5 singularity conditions

LocationHigh Plains46.08 N, 108.23 W

Storm motion+4.1E / -6.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911453Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911453

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate

0.2%

46.078 N, 108.230 W

Rotation 0.010 s^-1 MUCAPE 1650 J/kg Flash rate 26/min 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates46.078 N, 108.230 W

LocationHigh Plains

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion16 mph NE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1650 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH98 m^2/s^2 (Low)

Effective bulk shear51 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0100 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)1.81 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate26 /min (Active)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6538 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0542

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)0.6898

S / Gamma ratio0.66 (Near balance)

Damkohler number13.70

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.65) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.7) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.2%

Analytic coherence model0.2%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)98 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1650 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
Active lightning (26/min) indicates strong updraft
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)

17High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911308Moderate46.24 N, 108.63 W | CAPE 1976 J/kg | SRH 66 | AzShear 0.00800.2%

Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED

0.2%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)

What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

Rotation 0.008 s^-1 MUCAPE 1976 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions

LocationHigh Plains46.24 N, 108.63 W

Storm motion+4.5E / -7.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911308Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911308

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate

0.2%

46.242 N, 108.635 W

Rotation 0.008 s^-1 MUCAPE 1976 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates46.242 N, 108.635 W

LocationHigh Plains

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion19 mph NNE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length2 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1976 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH66 m^2/s^2 (Low)

Effective bulk shear41 kt (High)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.2 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0080 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.27 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate10 /min (Moderate)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6538 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0542

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)0.6898

S / Gamma ratio0.66 (Near balance)

Damkohler number13.70

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.65) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.7) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.2%

Analytic coherence model0.2%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)66 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1976 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.2)
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)

18High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911323Moderate46.55 N, 107.86 W | CAPE 1652 J/kg | SRH 218 | AzShear 0.00500.2%

Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

ELEVATED

0.2%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)

What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1652 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 218 Flash rate 23/min 2/5 singularity conditions

LocationHigh Plains46.55 N, 107.86 W

Storm motion+1.6E / -4.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911323Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911323

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate

0.2%

46.546 N, 107.856 W

MUCAPE 1652 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 218 Flash rate 23/min 2/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates46.546 N, 107.856 W

LocationHigh Plains

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion10 mph NNE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length2 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1652 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH218 m^2/s^2 (High)

Effective bulk shear62 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate3.2 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.78 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate23 /min (Active)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.7119 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0171

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-3.8537

S / Gamma ratio1.48 (Source exceeds damping)

Damkohler number12.50

Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.71) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.2%

Analytic coherence model0.2%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)218 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1652 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1652, SRH 218)
Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.2)
Active lightning (23/min) indicates strong updraft

19Northeast USELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911504Moderate47.39 N, 69.81 W | CAPE 1650 J/kg | SRH 117 | AzShear 0.00300.2%

Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED

0.2%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)

What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1650 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

LocationNortheast US47.39 N, 69.81 W

Storm motion+4.1E / +3.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911504Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911504

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate

0.2%

47.388 N, 69.809 W

MUCAPE 1650 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions

Location & Timing

Coordinates47.388 N, 69.809 W

LocationNortheast US

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion12 mph SE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length1 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE1650 J/kg (Moderate)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH117 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)

Effective bulk shear57 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate1.7 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.24 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1491 (Strong coherence)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5126

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)7.3298

S / Gamma ratio0.98 (Near balance)

Damkohler number23.56

Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.15) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (1.0) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.2%

Analytic coherence model0.2%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)117 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)1650 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.7)
Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

20High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911227Moderate48.78 N, 102.51 W | CAPE 731 J/kg | SRH 107 | AzShear 0.00500.2%

Threat brief

High Plains

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

ELEVATED

0.2%

Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)

What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

LocationHigh Plains48.78 N, 102.51 W

Storm motion+4.3E / -1.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack

ProbSevere ID911227Active convective object identifier

Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first

Technical breakdown

Storm 911227

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate

0.2%

48.780 N, 102.507 W

Location & Timing

Coordinates48.780 N, 102.507 W

LocationHigh Plains

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Storm motion10 mph ENE

Storm size0 km^2

Track length2 time steps

Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)

MUCAPE731 J/kg (Low)

MLCAPE0 J/kg

MLCIN0 J/kg

0-1km SRH107 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)

Effective bulk shear57 kt (Extreme)

Precipitable water0.0 in

Wet bulb 0C height0 kft

STP estimate0.7 (Marginal)

Radar Signatures

Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)

P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1

MESH (max hail)0.34 in

VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity

Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)

Flash density0.00

Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores

ProbSevere (any severe)0%

ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis

Coherence amplitude (tau)0.0000 (Minimal)

Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3765

Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000

Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-3.2770

S / Gamma ratio0.80 (Near balance)

Damkohler number35.47

Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)

Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Weak coherence (tau=0.00) - limited atmospheric organization.

Source/damping ratio (0.8) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Model Confidence

Combined probability0.2%

Analytic coherence model0.2%

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology

SRH percentile (approx.)107 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring

CAPE percentile (approx.)731 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance

Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)

Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid

Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability

Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 911508 -- Coherence fields

2.1%

Tornado probability (90% band: 2.0%-2.1%)

tau2.3346

grad_tau0.1803

torsion0.0000

alignment-18.2318

S_field1.3519

Gamma_field0.1812

S / Gamma7.4626

Da (Damkohler)9.9145

E_coh0.5617

Singularity count1.0000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met1 / 5

s_over_gammaYES

high_gradientno

high_torsionno

positive_alignmentno

high_damkohlerno

Storm parameters

Location45.6456, -71.0144

CAPE1914 J/kg

0-1km SRH205 m^2/s^2

Eff. bulk shear60 kt

MaxLLAz0.0020 /s

Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC

Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Evidence and replay

See the evidence

Every forecast links to the exact data and model that produced it. Nothing is hidden.

Browse evidence

Check our track record

How often are we right? We publish accuracy scores publicly, broken down by region and severity.

See accuracy

Replay any forecast

Download the input data and re-run any past forecast yourself. Same data in, same result out - guaranteed.

Download replay

Global Tornado Monitor

What should I do?

Global tornado activity map

Storm locations

Active storms by tornado probability

Northeast US

Storm 911508

Northeast US

Storm 910895

Northeast US

Storm 911428

Northeast US

Storm 911468

Northeast US

Storm 911509

Northeast US

Storm 911120

Northeast US

Storm 909928

High Plains

Storm 911204

Northeast US

Storm 911403

Northeast US

Storm 911466

36 mi W of Nashville, TN

Storm 911313

High Plains

Storm 911505

High Plains

Storm 911397

High Plains

Storm 911503

Northeast US

Storm 911348

High Plains

Storm 911453

High Plains

Storm 911308

High Plains

Storm 911323

Northeast US

Storm 911504

High Plains

Storm 911227

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 911508 -- Coherence fields

Singularity analysis

Storm parameters

Evidence and replay

See the evidence

Check our track record

Replay any forecast