Tornado · contiguous US · next 60 minutes

The tornado chance of every tracked storm

For every thunderstorm NOAA’s ProbSevere system is tracking on radar over and near the contiguous United States, the chance that it produces a tornado within the next 60 minutes. This is not a warning: if the National Weather Service issues a tornado warning for your area, take shelter.

Updated
Radar data from
Storms tracked
1
Under an NWS tornado warning
0

Map

This forecast was made from data observed at 05:16 UTC, so its 60-minute window ended 34 minutes ago. A new one is published every 2 hours, or every 30 minutes while tornado risk is elevated; until then, treat these numbers as out of date.

Known input gap. Since NOAA changed the format of its ProbSevere feed on 5 August 2025, the feed no longer carries ProbSevere severe probability and VIL density. The model learned from storms before the change, when they were present; it now receives 0 for them, as it did for the storms after the change in its 2025 test. 3 more inputs the model does not use are missing or in a new format. Every forecast records which inputs were missing. A test written down in advance scored the published model on every storm observation from 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-30 (1,262,285 of them, 1,500 followed by a tornado), all in the new format: AUC 0.9699, against 0.9702 on its 2025 test, so no loss of ranking is visible (2026 is scored on SPC’s preliminary reports). A model built without the inputs the feed lost did not rank better (−0.0003 [−0.0012, +0.0007] AUC, paired by day), so the published model stays. It may cost calibration: over that period the model’s average forecast was 0.81 times the rate at which tornadoes followed. A recalibration for the new format is an open question, to be judged on forecasts made after it is registered (docs/TORNADO_MODEL_PROGRAM.md, amendment 10; results/tornado_program/t2_2026.json).

For tornado warnings, follow the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center. HazardPulse publishes research forecasts, not warnings.

Map of tracked thunderstormsEach marker is a thunderstorm tracked by NOAA ProbSevere over the contiguous US, coloured by its chance of producing a tornado within 60 minutes. Numbered markers are the storms listed below.1. 6 mi NNW of Alamogordo, NM: <0.1%1
Chance of a tornado within 60 minutes
  • under 1%
  • 1–5%
  • 5–15%
  • 15–30%
  • 30–50%
  • 50% or more

Numbered markers match the list below. Storms over northern Mexico and the Gulf are tracked too when NOAA’s radar sees them; tornado reports, and so the test results, cover the US only.

Storms with the highest chance

The 1 storms with the highest chance, then every tracked storm. Open a row for what drives its number and how storms like it turned out.

  1. 16 mi NNW of Alamogordo, NM Observed 05:16 UTC · storm 1210110 · Calibration range 0%–<0.1%<0.1%
    <0.1%within 30 minutes
    <0.1%within 60 minutes
    <0.1%within 90 minutes
    <0.1%a strong (EF2+) tornado within 60 minutes

    What moved this number

    • mixed-layer CAPE0.0lowers the chance (-2.65)
    • NOAA ProbTor0%lowers the chance (-1.14)
    • effective bulk shear3.0lowers the chance (-0.72)
    • mid-level rotation (98th pct)0.0lowers the chance (-0.61)
    • NOAA ProbWind0%lowers the chance (-0.47)

    Effects are the model’s own attribution, additive on the log-odds scale: +0.69 roughly doubles the odds, −0.69 halves them.

    How storms scored like this one turned out

    Of the 1,340,592 storm observations in 2025 that this model gave between 0% and 0.1%, 0.01% (95% interval <0.01%–0.01%) were followed by a tornado from that storm within 60 minutes.

    NWS tornado warning

    none in effect for this storm

    Storm attributes from NOAA ProbSevere
    NOAA ProbTor
    0%
    NOAA ProbSevere (any severe weather)
    0%
    Low-level rotation (max azimuthal shear)
    0.0 ×10⁻³ s⁻¹
    Most-unstable CAPE
    7 J/kg
    Effective bulk shear
    3 kt
    0–1 km storm-relative helicity
    82 m²/s²
    Maximum expected hail size
    0.00 in
    Lightning flash rate
    0 per min
    Storm area
    81 km²
    ProbSevere storm ID
    1210110
    Position
    32.97°N 105.99°W
    Observed at
    Model
    tornado_v3-05a06c843c87
All 1 tracked storms
Every tracked storm, highest chance first
#LocationNWS tornado warningChance, 60 min
16 mi NNW of Alamogordo, NMNo<0.1%

About this forecast

What the model is
Gradient-boosted trees on NOAA ProbSevere’s storm attributes — radar, lightning, satellite and the near-storm environment — and the live National Weather Service tornado-warning state
How it tested
On every storm observation of 2025 (1,469,977, of which 1,579 were followed by a tornado), scored once after every choice was fixed: a storm that went on to produce a tornado was ranked above one that did not 97.0% of the time; NOAA’s ProbTor on the same storms, its whole-percent ties broken: 93.9%
What counts as a tornado
a tornado report starts within 10 km of this storm's tracked polygon within 60 min
Model version
tornado_v3-05a06c843c87
Full results
Tornado model test results

Check this forecast

See what produced it

The forecast’s record: its data sources, model version, and hashes of its inputs and output.

Open the evidence

See the track record

How the model scored on every storm of 2025 against NOAA’s ProbTor and the Weather Service’s warnings.

Open the track record

Re-run it yourself

Download this forecast’s frozen record: the published numbers, the model version, and the inputs it used (for earthquakes, the catalog window and its hash).

Download to_fcst_20261019_0519.json