Live severe weather intelligence

Global Tornado Monitor

24-hour tornado formation probability for the world's most active severe convection zones. Ranked by composite STP/SCP indices with full evidence.

What should I do?

There are currently 124 storm cells being tracked. Monitor weather.gov for official warnings in your area. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor.

Global tornado activity map

Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.

HazardPulse Global Hazard Map Fiji Fiji Fiji Tanzania W. Sahara Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Argentina Argentina Chile Chile Dem. Rep. Congo Somalia Kenya Sudan Chad Haiti Dominican Rep. Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Bahamas Bahamas Bahamas Falkland Is. Norway Norway Norway Norway Greenland Fr. S. Antarctic Lands Timor-Leste South Africa South Africa Lesotho Mexico Uruguay Brazil Bolivia Peru Colombia Panama Costa Rica Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Guatemala Belize Venezuela Guyana Suriname France France France Ecuador Puerto Rico Jamaica Cuba Zimbabwe Botswana Namibia Senegal Mali Mauritania Benin Niger Nigeria Cameroon Togo Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Central African Rep. Congo Gabon Eq. Guinea Zambia Malawi Mozambique eSwatini Angola Angola Burundi Israel Lebanon Madagascar Palestine Gambia Tunisia Algeria Jordan United Arab Emirates Qatar Kuwait Iraq Oman Oman Vanuatu Vanuatu Cambodia Thailand Laos Myanmar Vietnam North Korea North Korea South Korea Mongolia India Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal Pakistan Afghanistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Iran Syria Armenia Sweden Belarus Ukraine Poland Austria Hungary Moldova Romania Lithuania Latvia Estonia Germany Bulgaria Greece Greece Turkey Turkey Albania Croatia Switzerland Luxembourg Belgium Netherlands Portugal Spain Ireland New Caledonia Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. New Zealand New Zealand Australia Australia Sri Lanka China China Taiwan Italy Italy Italy Denmark Denmark United Kingdom United Kingdom Iceland Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Georgia Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Malaysia Malaysia Brunei Slovenia Finland Slovakia Czechia Eritrea Japan Japan Japan Paraguay Yemen Saudi Arabia Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica N. Cyprus Cyprus Morocco Egypt Libya Ethiopia Djibouti Somaliland Uganda Rwanda Bosnia and Herz. North Macedonia Serbia Montenegro Kosovo Trinidad and Tobago S. Sudan Atlantic E. Pacific W. Pacific N. Indian S. Indian Australian Tornado Alley Dixie Alley Pampas Bangladesh Storm 910692 1.4% · Rank #1 Storm 910868 1.4% · Rank #2 Storm 909928 0.7% · Rank #3 Storm 910856 0.7% · Rank #4 Storm 910787 0.7% · Rank #5 Storm 910871 0.7% · Rank #6 Storm 910833 0.7% · Rank #7 Storm 910873 0.7% · Rank #8 Storm 910875 0.7% · Rank #9 Storm 910093 0.7% · Rank #10 Storm 910829 0.4% · Rank #11 Storm 910828 0.4% · Rank #12 Storm 910867 0.4% · Rank #13 Storm 910870 0.4% · Rank #14 Storm 909809 0.3% · Rank #15 Storm 910851 0.3% · Rank #16 Storm 910874 0.2% · Rank #17 Storm 910866 0.2% · Rank #18 Storm 910847 0.2% · Rank #19 Storm 910625 0.2% · Rank #20
Tornado cell Tornado-prone region Your location

Storm locations

Active ProbSevere storm objects. Click markers for details.

Last updateWed, 15 Jul 2026 03:03:50 UTC (every 2 hr)
Scoring modelML (pre-trained gradient-boosted trees)
Active storms124 storms
Coherence sourceHRRR 80 km grid

Active storms by tornado probability

ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.

1Northeast USCRITICAL1.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910692Very High45.97 N, 70.17 W | CAPE 1604 J/kg | SRH 242 | AzShear 0.00101.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
1.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.3%-1.4%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1604 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 242 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.97 N, 70.17 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910692Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910692

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.4%
45.968 N, 70.172 W
MUCAPE 1604 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 242 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.968 N, 70.172 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1604 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH242 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear48 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.5 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.09 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5755 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5805
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-16.4787
S / Gamma ratio1.48 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number33.04
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.58) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.4%
Analytic coherence model1.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)242 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1604 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1604, SRH 242)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.5)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
2Northeast USCRITICAL1.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910868Very High46.47 N, 70.76 W | CAPE 2011 J/kg | SRH 230 | AzShear 0.00001.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
1.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.2%-1.4%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2011 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 230 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US46.47 N, 70.76 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910868Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910868

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.4%
46.468 N, 70.758 W
MUCAPE 2011 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 230 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates46.468 N, 70.758 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2011 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH230 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear56 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate4.1 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.1454 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4460
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-15.2191
S / Gamma ratio2.82 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.48
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.15) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.8) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.4%
Analytic coherence model1.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)230 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2011 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 2011, SRH 230)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 4.1)
3Northeast USCRITICAL0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 909928Very High45.10 N, 76.60 W | CAPE 2775 J/kg | SRH 107 | AzShear 0.00600.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 2775 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.10 N, 76.60 W
Storm motion+3.8E / +2.2SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID909928Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 909928

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.7%
45.102 N, 76.600 W
Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 2775 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.102 N, 76.600 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion10 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length4 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2775 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH107 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear55 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.6 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.25 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate10 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.9136 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4111
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)9.3463
S / Gamma ratio2.39 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number23.43
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.91) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)107 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2775 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.6)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
4Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910856High45.26 N, 75.05 W | CAPE 2662 J/kg | SRH 115 | AzShear 0.00200.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2662 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.26 N, 75.05 W
Storm motion+3.8E / +1.8SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910856Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910856

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
45.258 N, 75.053 W
MUCAPE 2662 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.258 N, 75.053 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion9 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2662 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH115 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear69 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.7 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.21 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.5653 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3307
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)6.2295
S / Gamma ratio3.59 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number16.28
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.57) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)115 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2662 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.7)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
5Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910787High45.72 N, 76.06 W | CAPE 1710 J/kg | SRH 75 | AzShear 0.00500.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1710 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.72 N, 76.06 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910787Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910787

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
45.724 N, 76.056 W
MUCAPE 1710 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.724 N, 76.056 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1710 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH75 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear58 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.72 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate5 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3030 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3783
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)10.9190
S / Gamma ratio3.62 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.20
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.30) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)75 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1710 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
6Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910871High45.49 N, 75.53 W | CAPE 2167 J/kg | SRH 76 | AzShear 0.00200.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2167 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.49 N, 75.53 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910871Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910871

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
45.494 N, 75.527 W
MUCAPE 2167 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.494 N, 75.527 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2167 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH76 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear67 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.5 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.06 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3030 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3783
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)10.9190
S / Gamma ratio3.62 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.20
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.30) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)76 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2167 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.5)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
7Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910833High45.45 N, 75.74 W | CAPE 1883 J/kg | SRH 73 | AzShear 0.00300.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1883 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.45 N, 75.74 W
Storm motion+3.1E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910833Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910833

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
45.446 N, 75.742 W
MUCAPE 1883 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.446 N, 75.742 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion7 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1883 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH73 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear63 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.2 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3030 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3783
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)10.9190
S / Gamma ratio3.62 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.20
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.30) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)73 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1883 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.2)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
8Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910873High45.22 N, 75.60 W | CAPE 2259 J/kg | SRH 95 | AzShear 0.00100.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2259 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.22 N, 75.60 W
Storm motion+2.6E / +0.3SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910873Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910873

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
45.218 N, 75.597 W
MUCAPE 2259 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.218 N, 75.597 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion6 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2259 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH95 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear61 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.9 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3030 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3783
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)10.9190
S / Gamma ratio3.62 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.20
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.30) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)95 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2259 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.9)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
9Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910875High44.83 N, 75.48 W | CAPE 4344 J/kg | SRH 147 | AzShear 0.00300.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 4344 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US44.83 N, 75.48 W
Storm motion+3.2E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910875Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910875

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
44.826 N, 75.482 W
MUCAPE 4344 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates44.826 N, 75.482 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion7 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE4344 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH147 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear54 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.9 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.27 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3514 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5676
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)6.2127
S / Gamma ratio5.34 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number16.55
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.35) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (5.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)147 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)4344 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.9)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
10Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910093High45.06 N, 75.79 W | CAPE 3088 J/kg | SRH 132 | AzShear 0.00500.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 3088 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.06 N, 75.79 W
Storm motion+2.5E / +0.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910093Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910093

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
45.065 N, 75.789 W
MUCAPE 3088 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.065 N, 75.789 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion6 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length4 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3088 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH132 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear53 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.5 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.13 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate7 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3514 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5676
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)6.2127
S / Gamma ratio5.34 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number16.55
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.35) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (5.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)132 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3088 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.5)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
11Northeast USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910829High47.88 N, 71.29 W | CAPE 917 J/kg | SRH 128 | AzShear 0.00500.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

4/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US47.88 N, 71.29 W
Storm motion+3.2E / +2.5SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910829Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910829

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
47.883 N, 71.292 W
4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.883 N, 71.292 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion9 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE917 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH128 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear57 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.0 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.06 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3999 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.6373
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)4.2097
S / Gamma ratio2.06 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.64
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.40) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)128 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)917 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.0)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
12Northeast USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910828High47.91 N, 70.86 W | CAPE 312 J/kg | SRH 127 | AzShear 0.01200.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has strong rotation detected, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Strong rotation 0.012 s^-1 4/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US47.91 N, 70.86 W
Storm motion+3.2E / +2.5SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910828Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910828

This storm has strong rotation detected, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
47.908 N, 70.856 W
Strong rotation 0.012 s^-1 4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.908 N, 70.856 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion9 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE312 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH127 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear47 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.4 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0120 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.23 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3999 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.6373
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)4.2097
S / Gamma ratio2.06 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.64
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.40) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)127 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)312 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
13Northeast USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910867High47.82 N, 70.52 W | CAPE 128 J/kg | SRH 126 | AzShear 0.00300.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

4/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US47.82 N, 70.52 W
Storm motion+3.5E / +0.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910867Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910867

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
47.823 N, 70.522 W
4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.823 N, 70.522 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE128 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH126 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear34 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.1 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3999 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.6373
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)4.2097
S / Gamma ratio2.06 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.64
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.40) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)126 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)128 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
14Northeast USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910870High45.53 N, 76.23 W | CAPE 2057 J/kg | SRH 62 | AzShear 0.00200.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2057 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.53 N, 76.23 W
Storm motion+3.8E / -3.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910870Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910870

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
45.534 N, 76.234 W
MUCAPE 2057 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.534 N, 76.234 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion11 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2057 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH62 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear54 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8996 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3596
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)12.9255
S / Gamma ratio1.64 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number23.48
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.90) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)62 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2057 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
15High PlainsELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 909809Moderate46.61 N, 108.76 W | CAPE 2352 J/kg | SRH 84 | AzShear 0.01600.3%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

ELEVATED
0.3%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.3%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

Strong rotation 0.016 s^-1 MUCAPE 2352 J/kg Flash rate 85/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains46.61 N, 108.76 W
Storm motion+7.7E / +0.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID909809Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 909809

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.3%
46.615 N, 108.755 W
Strong rotation 0.016 s^-1 MUCAPE 2352 J/kg Flash rate 85/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates46.615 N, 108.755 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion17 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length5 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2352 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH84 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear40 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.8 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0160 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)1.52 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate85 /min (Intense)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6925 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1287
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.5689
S / Gamma ratio1.08 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number11.95
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.69) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.3%
Analytic coherence model0.3%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)84 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2352 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.8)
  • Active lightning (85/min) indicates strong updraft
1669 mi W of Houston, TXELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910851Moderate29.20 N, 96.20 W | CAPE 1869 J/kg | SRH 65 | AzShear 0.00500.3%
Threat brief

69 mi W of Houston, TX

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.3%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.3%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1869 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location69 mi W of Houston, TX29.20 N, 96.20 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910851Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910851

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.3%
29.204 N, 96.201 W
MUCAPE 1869 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates29.204 N, 96.201 W
Location69 mi W of Houston, TX
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1869 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH65 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear19 kt (Low)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.5 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1544 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1504
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.4867
S / Gamma ratio1.04 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number29.42
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.15) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.3%
Analytic coherence model0.3%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)65 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1869 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
17Northeast USELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910874Moderate45.17 N, 77.34 W | CAPE 1562 J/kg | SRH 175 | AzShear 0.01400.2%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

Strong rotation 0.014 s^-1 MUCAPE 1562 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 175 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.17 N, 77.34 W
Storm motion+3.6E / +2.2SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910874Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910874

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
45.166 N, 77.336 W
Strong rotation 0.014 s^-1 MUCAPE 1562 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 175 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.166 N, 77.336 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion9 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1562 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH175 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear58 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0140 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.14 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6157 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3179
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)10.0443
S / Gamma ratio1.50 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number27.73
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.62) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)175 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1562 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1562, SRH 175)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.4)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
18Northeast USELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910866Moderate47.84 N, 71.74 W | CAPE 1235 J/kg | SRH 94 | AzShear 0.00300.2%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1235 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US47.84 N, 71.74 W
Storm motion+3.5E / +0.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910866Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910866

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
47.843 N, 71.742 W
MUCAPE 1235 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.843 N, 71.742 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1235 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH94 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear63 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.0 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.4510 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.6524
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.5324
S / Gamma ratio1.66 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number13.16
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.45) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)94 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1235 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.0)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
1939 mi W of Nashville, TNELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910847Moderate36.36 N, 87.30 W | CAPE 2793 J/kg | SRH 41 | AzShear 0.00200.2%
Threat brief

39 mi W of Nashville, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 2793 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location39 mi W of Nashville, TN36.36 N, 87.30 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910847Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910847

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
36.363 N, 87.302 W
MUCAPE 2793 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.363 N, 87.302 W
Location39 mi W of Nashville, TN
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2793 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH41 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear24 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.6 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.18 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.7469 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1933
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-1.9589
S / Gamma ratio1.78 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number20.35
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.75) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.8) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)41 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2793 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
20Near Nashville, TNELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTCStorm 910625Moderate36.45 N, 86.99 W | CAPE 2850 J/kg | SRH 50 | AzShear 0.00200.2%
Threat brief

Near Nashville, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 2850 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNear Nashville, TN36.45 N, 86.99 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910625Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910625

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
36.449 N, 86.995 W
MUCAPE 2850 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.449 N, 86.995 W
LocationNear Nashville, TN
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2850 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH50 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear25 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.8 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.7469 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1933
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-1.9589
S / Gamma ratio1.78 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number20.35
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.75) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.8) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)50 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2850 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 910692 -- Coherence fields

1.4%
Tornado probability (90% band: 1.3%-1.4%)
tau1.5755
grad_tau0.5805
torsion0.0000
alignment-16.4787
S_field0.8807
Gamma_field0.5960
S / Gamma1.4776
Da (Damkohler)33.0383
E_coh0.4965
Singularity count3.0000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met3 / 5
s_over_gammaYES
high_gradientYES
high_torsionno
positive_alignmentno
high_damkohlerYES

Storm parameters

Location45.9680, -70.1720
CAPE1604 J/kg
0-1km SRH242 m^2/s^2
Eff. bulk shear48 kt
MaxLLAz0.0010 /s
Valid time2026-07-15 03:00:41 UTC
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Evidence and replay

See the evidence

Every forecast links to the exact data and model that produced it. Nothing is hidden.

Browse evidence

Check our track record

How often are we right? We publish accuracy scores publicly, broken down by region and severity.

See accuracy

Replay any forecast

Download the input data and re-run any past forecast yourself. Same data in, same result out - guaranteed.

Download replay