Live severe weather intelligence

Global Tornado Monitor

24-hour tornado formation probability for the world's most active severe convection zones. Ranked by composite STP/SCP indices with full evidence.

What should I do?

There are currently 203 storm cells being tracked. Monitor weather.gov for official warnings in your area. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor.

Global tornado activity map

Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.

HazardPulse Global Hazard Map Fiji Fiji Fiji Tanzania W. Sahara Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Argentina Argentina Chile Chile Dem. Rep. Congo Somalia Kenya Sudan Chad Haiti Dominican Rep. Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Bahamas Bahamas Bahamas Falkland Is. Norway Norway Norway Norway Greenland Fr. S. Antarctic Lands Timor-Leste South Africa South Africa Lesotho Mexico Uruguay Brazil Bolivia Peru Colombia Panama Costa Rica Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Guatemala Belize Venezuela Guyana Suriname France France France Ecuador Puerto Rico Jamaica Cuba Zimbabwe Botswana Namibia Senegal Mali Mauritania Benin Niger Nigeria Cameroon Togo Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Central African Rep. Congo Gabon Eq. Guinea Zambia Malawi Mozambique eSwatini Angola Angola Burundi Israel Lebanon Madagascar Palestine Gambia Tunisia Algeria Jordan United Arab Emirates Qatar Kuwait Iraq Oman Oman Vanuatu Vanuatu Cambodia Thailand Laos Myanmar Vietnam North Korea North Korea South Korea Mongolia India Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal Pakistan Afghanistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Iran Syria Armenia Sweden Belarus Ukraine Poland Austria Hungary Moldova Romania Lithuania Latvia Estonia Germany Bulgaria Greece Greece Turkey Turkey Albania Croatia Switzerland Luxembourg Belgium Netherlands Portugal Spain Ireland New Caledonia Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. New Zealand New Zealand Australia Australia Sri Lanka China China Taiwan Italy Italy Italy Denmark Denmark United Kingdom United Kingdom Iceland Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Georgia Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Malaysia Malaysia Brunei Slovenia Finland Slovakia Czechia Eritrea Japan Japan Japan Paraguay Yemen Saudi Arabia Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica N. Cyprus Cyprus Morocco Egypt Libya Ethiopia Djibouti Somaliland Uganda Rwanda Bosnia and Herz. North Macedonia Serbia Montenegro Kosovo Trinidad and Tobago S. Sudan Atlantic E. Pacific W. Pacific N. Indian S. Indian Australian Tornado Alley Dixie Alley Pampas Bangladesh Storm 283733 65.0% · Rank #1 Storm 283755 60.9% · Rank #2 Storm 283754 51.4% · Rank #3 Storm 283673 45.2% · Rank #4 Storm 283674 45.2% · Rank #5 Storm 283138 44.2% · Rank #6 Storm 283629 44.2% · Rank #7 Storm 283650 40.8% · Rank #8 Storm 283750 40.8% · Rank #9 Storm 283433 40.6% · Rank #10 Storm 283675 39.8% · Rank #11 Storm 283732 39.1% · Rank #12 Storm 283742 37.0% · Rank #13 Storm 282029 36.1% · Rank #14 Storm 283039 35.8% · Rank #15 Storm 282213 35.8% · Rank #16 Storm 283585 35.3% · Rank #17 Storm 283443 34.6% · Rank #18 Storm 281446 34.1% · Rank #19 Storm 281487 33.6% · Rank #20
Tornado cell Tornado-prone region Your location

Storm locations

Active ProbSevere storm objects. Click markers for details.

Last updateSun, 31 May 2026 00:45:12 UTC (every 2 hr)
Scoring modelML (pre-trained gradient-boosted trees)
Active storms203 storms
Coherence sourceHRRR 80 km grid

Active storms by tornado probability

ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.

1Southern Plains / Deep SouthCRITICAL65.0% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283733Very High34.37 N, 88.71 W | CAPE 3404 J/kg | SRH 57 | AzShear 0.002065.0%
Threat brief

Southern Plains / Deep South

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
65.0%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3404 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South34.37 N, 88.71 W
Storm motion+6.1E / -4.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283733Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283733

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
65.0%
34.374 N, 88.710 W
MUCAPE 3404 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates34.374 N, 88.710 W
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion16 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3404 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH57 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear29 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.7369 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4064
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.9425
S / Gamma ratio2.45 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.45
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.74) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability65.0%
Analytic coherence model65.0%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)57 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3404 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~50% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
2Southern Plains / Deep SouthCRITICAL60.9% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283755Very High34.57 N, 88.67 W | CAPE 2993 J/kg | SRH 46 | AzShear 0.005060.9%
Threat brief

Southern Plains / Deep South

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
60.9%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2993 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South34.57 N, 88.67 W
Storm motion+7.0E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283755Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283755

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
60.9%
34.569 N, 88.672 W
MUCAPE 2993 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates34.569 N, 88.672 W
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion19 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2993 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH46 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear29 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.9 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.08 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.7369 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4064
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.9425
S / Gamma ratio2.45 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.45
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.74) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability60.9%
Analytic coherence model60.9%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)46 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2993 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~50% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
389 mi E of Memphis, TNCRITICAL51.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283754Very High34.72 N, 88.83 W | CAPE 2836 J/kg | SRH 42 | AzShear 0.002051.4%
Threat brief

89 mi E of Memphis, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
51.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2836 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location89 mi E of Memphis, TN34.72 N, 88.83 W
Storm motion+5.7E / -4.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283754Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283754

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
51.4%
34.722 N, 88.831 W
MUCAPE 2836 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates34.722 N, 88.831 W
Location89 mi E of Memphis, TN
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion16 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2836 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH42 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear28 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.7 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.7369 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4064
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.9425
S / Gamma ratio2.45 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.45
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.74) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability51.4%
Analytic coherence model51.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)42 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2836 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~50% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
444 mi W of Springfield, MOHIGH45.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283673High36.77 N, 93.74 W | CAPE 2948 J/kg | SRH 115 | AzShear 0.006045.2%
Threat brief

44 mi W of Springfield, MO

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
45.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 2948 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location44 mi W of Springfield, MO36.77 N, 93.74 W
Storm motion+9.6E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283673Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283673

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
45.2%
36.773 N, 93.741 W
Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 2948 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.773 N, 93.741 W
Location44 mi W of Springfield, MO
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion24 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2948 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH115 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear29 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.2 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.25 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.6108 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2319
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.4663
S / Gamma ratio5.73 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.78
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (5.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability45.2%
Analytic coherence model45.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)115 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2948 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~50% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.2)
556 mi W of Springfield, MOHIGH45.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283674High36.74 N, 93.94 W | CAPE 3249 J/kg | SRH 136 | AzShear 0.006045.2%
Threat brief

56 mi W of Springfield, MO

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
45.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 3249 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location56 mi W of Springfield, MO36.74 N, 93.94 W
Storm motion+8.0E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283674Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283674

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
45.2%
36.738 N, 93.938 W
Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 3249 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.738 N, 93.938 W
Location56 mi W of Springfield, MO
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion21 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3249 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH136 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear31 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.8 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.19 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.6108 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2319
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.4663
S / Gamma ratio5.73 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.78
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (5.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability45.2%
Analytic coherence model45.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)136 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3249 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~50% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.8)
6Gulf CoastHIGH44.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283138High30.88 N, 84.46 W | CAPE 2980 J/kg | SRH 60 | AzShear 0.004044.2%
Threat brief

Gulf Coast

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
44.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2980 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationGulf Coast30.88 N, 84.46 W
Storm motion+8.0E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283138Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283138

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
44.2%
30.885 N, 84.457 W
MUCAPE 2980 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates30.885 N, 84.457 W
LocationGulf Coast
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion21 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2980 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH60 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear26 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.0 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.6799 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4167
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-5.8247
S / Gamma ratio1.42 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number22.38
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.68) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability44.2%
Analytic coherence model44.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)60 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2980 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~49% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.0)
7Near Springfield, MOHIGH44.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283629High36.88 N, 93.43 W | CAPE 2238 J/kg | SRH 95 | AzShear 0.011044.2%
Threat brief

Near Springfield, MO

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
44.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1 MUCAPE 2238 J/kg Flash rate 47/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNear Springfield, MO36.88 N, 93.43 W
Storm motion+9.9E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283629Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283629

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
44.2%
36.880 N, 93.432 W
Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1 MUCAPE 2238 J/kg Flash rate 47/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.880 N, 93.432 W
LocationNear Springfield, MO
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion25 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2238 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH95 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear31 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.5 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0110 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)1.02 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate47 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.6108 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2319
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.4663
S / Gamma ratio5.73 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.78
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (5.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability44.2%
Analytic coherence model44.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)95 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2238 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~49% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.5)
  • Active lightning (47/min) indicates strong updraft
877 mi E of Hays, KSHIGH40.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283650High38.81 N, 98.21 W | CAPE 3660 J/kg | SRH 84 | AzShear 0.001040.8%
Threat brief

77 mi E of Hays, KS

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
40.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3660 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location77 mi E of Hays, KS38.81 N, 98.21 W
Storm motion+1.5E / -11.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283650Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283650

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
40.8%
38.815 N, 98.210 W
MUCAPE 3660 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.815 N, 98.210 W
Location77 mi E of Hays, KS
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion25 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3660 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH84 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear25 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.11 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8358 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.8406
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)2.3867
S / Gamma ratio0.16 (Damping dominant)
Damkohler number31.04
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.84) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Low source/damping ratio (0.2) - dissipation dominates, limiting storm development.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability40.8%
Analytic coherence model40.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)84 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3660 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~45% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
9Near Wichita, KSHIGH40.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283750High37.96 N, 97.51 W | CAPE 3554 J/kg | SRH 161 | AzShear 0.003040.8%
Threat brief

Near Wichita, KS

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
40.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3554 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 161 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNear Wichita, KS37.96 N, 97.51 W
Storm motion+6.0E / -4.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283750Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283750

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
40.8%
37.964 N, 97.513 W
MUCAPE 3554 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 161 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates37.964 N, 97.513 W
LocationNear Wichita, KS
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion16 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3554 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH161 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear34 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.6 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.14 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6644 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.8577
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.4684
S / Gamma ratio0.63 (Near balance)
Damkohler number37.84
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.66) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.6) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability40.8%
Analytic coherence model40.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)161 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3554 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~45% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 3554, SRH 161)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.6)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
1092 mi N of Memphis, TNHIGH40.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283433High36.40 N, 90.54 W | CAPE 2290 J/kg | SRH 26 | AzShear 0.001040.6%
Threat brief

92 mi N of Memphis, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
40.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2290 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location92 mi N of Memphis, TN36.40 N, 90.54 W
Storm motion+0.1E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283433Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283433

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
40.6%
36.399 N, 90.541 W
MUCAPE 2290 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.399 N, 90.541 W
Location92 mi N of Memphis, TN
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion4 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2290 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH26 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear18 kt (Low)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.2 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.22 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.0710 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.7959
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-6.3928
S / Gamma ratio4.63 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.94
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.07) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (4.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability40.6%
Analytic coherence model40.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)26 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2290 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~45% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
1158 mi E of Memphis, TNHIGH39.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283675High34.89 N, 89.25 W | CAPE 2353 J/kg | SRH 15 | AzShear 0.002039.8%
Threat brief

58 mi E of Memphis, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
39.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2353 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location58 mi E of Memphis, TN34.89 N, 89.25 W
Storm motion+5.3E / -4.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283675Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283675

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
39.8%
34.885 N, 89.246 W
MUCAPE 2353 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates34.885 N, 89.246 W
Location58 mi E of Memphis, TN
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion15 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2353 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH15 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear22 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.2 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.11 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.7369 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4064
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.9425
S / Gamma ratio2.45 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.45
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.74) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability39.8%
Analytic coherence model39.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)15 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2353 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~44% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
1246 mi E of Memphis, TNHIGH39.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283732High34.78 N, 89.50 W | CAPE 2589 J/kg | SRH 8 | AzShear 0.001039.1%
Threat brief

46 mi E of Memphis, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
39.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2589 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location46 mi E of Memphis, TN34.78 N, 89.50 W
Storm motion+2.1E / -3.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283732Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283732

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
39.1%
34.776 N, 89.501 W
MUCAPE 2589 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates34.776 N, 89.501 W
Location46 mi E of Memphis, TN
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion8 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2589 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH8 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear17 kt (Low)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.1 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.6397 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3919
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-5.3811
S / Gamma ratio2.20 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number31.18
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.64) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.2) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability39.1%
Analytic coherence model39.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)8 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2589 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~43% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
13High PlainsHIGH37.0% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283742High44.18 N, 103.18 W | CAPE 1469 J/kg | SRH 78 | AzShear 0.003037.0%
Threat brief

High Plains

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

HIGH
37.0%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1469 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains44.18 N, 103.18 W
Storm motion-1.0E / -8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283742Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283742

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
37.0%
44.178 N, 103.176 W
MUCAPE 1469 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates44.178 N, 103.176 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion18 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1469 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH78 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear25 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.6 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.18 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3589 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1618
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-3.2699
S / Gamma ratio2.85 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.73
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.36) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability37.0%
Analytic coherence model37.0%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)78 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1469 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
1441 mi S of Kearney, NEHIGH36.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 282029High40.10 N, 99.09 W | CAPE 4101 J/kg | SRH 104 | AzShear 0.007036.1%
Threat brief

41 mi S of Kearney, NE

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
36.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 4101 J/kg Flash rate 30/min 4/5 singularity conditions
Location41 mi S of Kearney, NE40.10 N, 99.09 W
Storm motion+4.6E / -13.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID282029Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 282029

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
36.1%
40.096 N, 99.094 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 4101 J/kg Flash rate 30/min 4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates40.096 N, 99.094 W
Location41 mi S of Kearney, NE
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion31 mph NNE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE4101 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH104 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear29 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.0 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.42 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate30 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.1047 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5785
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.9619
S / Gamma ratio1.88 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number28.89
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.10) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability36.1%
Analytic coherence model36.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)104 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)4101 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~40% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.0)
  • Active lightning (30/min) indicates strong updraft
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
1577 mi S of Springfield, MOHIGH35.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283039High36.16 N, 93.61 W | CAPE 3413 J/kg | SRH 94 | AzShear 0.007035.8%
Threat brief

77 mi S of Springfield, MO

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
35.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 3413 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location77 mi S of Springfield, MO36.16 N, 93.61 W
Storm motion+7.8E / -6.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283039Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283039

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
35.8%
36.158 N, 93.614 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 3413 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.158 N, 93.614 W
Location77 mi S of Springfield, MO
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion22 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3413 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH94 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear30 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.9 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.62 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate3 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3804 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1385
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.4271
S / Gamma ratio1.30 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number44.79
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.38) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability35.8%
Analytic coherence model35.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)94 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3413 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~39% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.9)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
16High PlainsHIGH35.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 282213High43.77 N, 102.94 W | CAPE 1504 J/kg | SRH 99 | AzShear 0.014035.8%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
35.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Strong rotation 0.014 s^-1 MUCAPE 1504 J/kg Flash rate 79/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains43.77 N, 102.94 W
Storm motion-1.0E / -8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID282213Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 282213

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
35.8%
43.774 N, 102.941 W
Strong rotation 0.014 s^-1 MUCAPE 1504 J/kg Flash rate 79/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates43.774 N, 102.941 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion18 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1504 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH99 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear33 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0140 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.97 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate79 /min (Intense)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3589 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1618
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-3.2699
S / Gamma ratio2.85 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.73
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.36) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability35.8%
Analytic coherence model35.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)99 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1504 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~39% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
  • Active lightning (79/min) indicates strong updraft
17High PlainsHIGH35.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283585High40.56 N, 100.55 W | CAPE 4018 J/kg | SRH 88 | AzShear 0.004035.3%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
35.3%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 4018 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains40.56 N, 100.55 W
Storm motion-1.0E / -11.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283585Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283585

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
35.3%
40.564 N, 100.547 W
MUCAPE 4018 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates40.564 N, 100.547 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion25 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE4018 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH88 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear40 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.3 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.54 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate5 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8866 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5232
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.8340
S / Gamma ratio2.82 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number22.07
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.89) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.8) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability35.3%
Analytic coherence model35.3%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)88 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)4018 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~39% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.3)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
1891 mi E of Jacksonville, FLHIGH34.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 283443High30.42 N, 80.34 W | CAPE 2986 J/kg | SRH 40 | AzShear 0.005034.6%
Threat brief

91 mi E of Jacksonville, FL

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
34.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2986 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location91 mi E of Jacksonville, FL30.42 N, 80.34 W
Storm motion+0.1E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID283443Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 283443

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
34.6%
30.417 N, 80.338 W
MUCAPE 2986 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates30.417 N, 80.338 W
Location91 mi E of Jacksonville, FL
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion4 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2986 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH40 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear27 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.7 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.2619 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5368
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-5.6467
S / Gamma ratio1.95 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.55
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.26) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability34.6%
Analytic coherence model34.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)40 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2986 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~38% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
19Southeast USHIGH34.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 281446High31.89 N, 80.72 W | CAPE 2211 J/kg | SRH 68 | AzShear 0.007034.1%
Threat brief

Southeast US

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
34.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 2211 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationSoutheast US31.89 N, 80.72 W
Storm motion+7.6E / -4.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID281446Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 281446

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
34.1%
31.891 N, 80.719 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 2211 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates31.891 N, 80.719 W
LocationSoutheast US
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion19 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2211 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH68 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear36 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.2 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.47 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate6 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.1784 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2505
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)2.2413
S / Gamma ratio3.44 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number16.25
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.18) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability34.1%
Analytic coherence model34.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)68 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2211 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~38% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.2)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
2047 mi N of Wichita, KSHIGH33.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTCStorm 281487High38.29 N, 97.03 W | CAPE 3319 J/kg | SRH 138 | AzShear 0.007033.6%
Threat brief

47 mi N of Wichita, KS

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
33.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 3319 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location47 mi N of Wichita, KS38.29 N, 97.03 W
Storm motion+8.5E / -8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID281487Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 281487

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
33.6%
38.289 N, 97.027 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 3319 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.289 N, 97.027 W
Location47 mi N of Wichita, KS
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Storm motion26 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3319 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH138 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear23 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.19 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate5 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6644 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.8577
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.4684
S / Gamma ratio0.63 (Near balance)
Damkohler number37.84
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.66) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.6) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability33.6%
Analytic coherence model33.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)138 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3319 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~37% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.1)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 283733 -- Coherence fields

65.0%
Tornado probability
tau3.7369
grad_tau0.4064
torsion0.0000
alignment-8.9425
S_field0.8053
Gamma_field0.3282
S / Gamma2.4536
Da (Damkohler)19.4536
E_coh0.6433
Singularity count2.0000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met2 / 5
s_over_gammaYES
high_gradientno
high_torsionno
positive_alignmentno
high_damkohlerYES

Storm parameters

Location34.3740, -88.7100
CAPE3404 J/kg
0-1km SRH57 m^2/s^2
Eff. bulk shear29 kt
MaxLLAz0.0020 /s
Valid time2026-05-31 00:30:38 UTC
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

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