Live severe weather intelligence

Global Tornado Monitor

24-hour tornado formation probability for the world's most active severe convection zones. Ranked by composite STP/SCP indices with full evidence.

What should I do?

There are currently 128 storm cells being tracked. Monitor weather.gov for official warnings in your area. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor.

Global tornado activity map

Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.

HazardPulse Global Hazard Map Fiji Fiji Fiji Tanzania W. Sahara Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Argentina Argentina Chile Chile Dem. Rep. Congo Somalia Kenya Sudan Chad Haiti Dominican Rep. Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Bahamas Bahamas Bahamas Falkland Is. Norway Norway Norway Norway Greenland Fr. S. Antarctic Lands Timor-Leste South Africa South Africa Lesotho Mexico Uruguay Brazil Bolivia Peru Colombia Panama Costa Rica Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Guatemala Belize Venezuela Guyana Suriname France France France Ecuador Puerto Rico Jamaica Cuba Zimbabwe Botswana Namibia Senegal Mali Mauritania Benin Niger Nigeria Cameroon Togo Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Central African Rep. Congo Gabon Eq. Guinea Zambia Malawi Mozambique eSwatini Angola Angola Burundi Israel Lebanon Madagascar Palestine Gambia Tunisia Algeria Jordan United Arab Emirates Qatar Kuwait Iraq Oman Oman Vanuatu Vanuatu Cambodia Thailand Laos Myanmar Vietnam North Korea North Korea South Korea Mongolia India Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal Pakistan Afghanistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Iran Syria Armenia Sweden Belarus Ukraine Poland Austria Hungary Moldova Romania Lithuania Latvia Estonia Germany Bulgaria Greece Greece Turkey Turkey Albania Croatia Switzerland Luxembourg Belgium Netherlands Portugal Spain Ireland New Caledonia Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. New Zealand New Zealand Australia Australia Sri Lanka China China Taiwan Italy Italy Italy Denmark Denmark United Kingdom United Kingdom Iceland Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Georgia Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Malaysia Malaysia Brunei Slovenia Finland Slovakia Czechia Eritrea Japan Japan Japan Paraguay Yemen Saudi Arabia Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica N. Cyprus Cyprus Morocco Egypt Libya Ethiopia Djibouti Somaliland Uganda Rwanda Bosnia and Herz. North Macedonia Serbia Montenegro Kosovo Trinidad and Tobago S. Sudan Atlantic E. Pacific W. Pacific N. Indian S. Indian Australian Tornado Alley Dixie Alley Pampas Bangladesh Storm 501906 2.4% · Rank #1 Storm 501434 2.1% · Rank #2 Storm 501260 1.8% · Rank #3 Storm 501876 1.8% · Rank #4 Storm 501708 1.8% · Rank #5 Storm 501879 1.8% · Rank #6 Storm 501948 1.8% · Rank #7 Storm 500221 1.8% · Rank #8 Storm 501673 1.8% · Rank #9 Storm 501821 1.8% · Rank #10 Storm 501580 1.7% · Rank #11 Storm 501606 1.7% · Rank #12 Storm 500222 1.4% · Rank #13 Storm 502018 1.1% · Rank #14 Storm 501515 1.1% · Rank #15 Storm 502016 1.1% · Rank #16 Storm 501997 1.0% · Rank #17 Storm 501880 1.0% · Rank #18 Storm 501636 1.0% · Rank #19 Storm 501773 0.7% · Rank #20
Tornado cell Tornado-prone region Your location

Storm locations

Active ProbSevere storm objects. Click markers for details.

Last updateWed, 02 Sep 2026 14:03:25 UTC (every 2 hr)
Scoring modelML (pre-trained gradient-boosted trees)
Active storms128 storms
Coherence sourceHRRR 80 km grid

Active storms by tornado probability

ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.

1Northeast USCRITICAL2.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501906Very High43.24 N, 76.61 W | CAPE 2341 J/kg | SRH 63 | AzShear 0.00502.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
2.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 2.3%-2.4%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2341 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US43.24 N, 76.61 W
Storm motion+9.6E / -2.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501906Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501906

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
2.4%
43.235 N, 76.612 W
MUCAPE 2341 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates43.235 N, 76.612 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion22 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2341 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH63 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear68 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.3 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.24 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate3 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.4275 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2848
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-6.0184
S / Gamma ratio2.14 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number34.19
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.43) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability2.4%
Analytic coherence model2.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)63 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2341 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~3% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.3)
2Northeast USCRITICAL2.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501434Very High43.21 N, 76.19 W | CAPE 1460 J/kg | SRH 129 | AzShear 0.00402.1%
Threat brief

Northeast US

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

CRITICAL
2.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-2.2%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1460 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US43.21 N, 76.19 W
Storm motion+8.0E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501434Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501434

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
2.1%
43.206 N, 76.195 W
MUCAPE 1460 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates43.206 N, 76.195 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion18 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1460 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH129 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear59 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.7 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.10 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.4275 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2848
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-6.0184
S / Gamma ratio2.14 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number34.19
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.43) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability2.1%
Analytic coherence model2.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)129 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1460 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.7)
3Northeast USCRITICAL1.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501260Very High41.56 N, 79.00 W | CAPE 2667 J/kg | SRH 131 | AzShear 0.00101.8%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-1.8%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2667 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US41.56 N, 79.00 W
Storm motion+8.9E / +6.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501260Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501260

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.8%
41.560 N, 79.004 W
MUCAPE 2667 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.560 N, 79.004 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion25 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2667 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH131 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear44 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.1 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.03 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8617 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5382
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-11.2142
S / Gamma ratio1.96 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number35.25
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.86) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.8%
Analytic coherence model1.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)131 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2667 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.1)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
4Northeast USCRITICAL1.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501876Very High43.00 N, 76.27 W | CAPE 1404 J/kg | SRH 88 | AzShear 0.00201.8%
Threat brief

Northeast US

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

CRITICAL
1.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-1.8%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1404 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US43.00 N, 76.27 W
Storm motion+8.6E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501876Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501876

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.8%
43.000 N, 76.271 W
MUCAPE 1404 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates43.000 N, 76.271 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion19 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1404 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH88 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear61 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.11 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.4275 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2848
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-6.0184
S / Gamma ratio2.14 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number34.19
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.43) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.8%
Analytic coherence model1.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)88 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1404 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
5Northeast USCRITICAL1.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501708Very High41.71 N, 79.50 W | CAPE 2043 J/kg | SRH 205 | AzShear 0.00101.8%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
1.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-1.8%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2043 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 205 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US41.71 N, 79.50 W
Storm motion+5.4E / +2.3SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501708Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501708

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.8%
41.713 N, 79.504 W
MUCAPE 2043 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 205 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.713 N, 79.504 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion13 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2043 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH205 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear50 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.7 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.04 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8617 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5382
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-11.2142
S / Gamma ratio1.96 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number35.25
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.86) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.8%
Analytic coherence model1.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)205 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2043 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 2043, SRH 205)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.7)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
6Northeast USCRITICAL1.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501879Very High42.35 N, 79.56 W | CAPE 1243 J/kg | SRH 164 | AzShear 0.00301.8%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
1.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-1.8%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1243 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 164 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US42.35 N, 79.56 W
Storm motion+8.5E / +6.8SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501879Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501879

This storm has strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.8%
42.347 N, 79.560 W
MUCAPE 1243 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 164 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.347 N, 79.560 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion24 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1243 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH164 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear35 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.6 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.38 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate6 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.0565 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1647
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-7.9793
S / Gamma ratio3.25 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number20.21
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.06) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.8%
Analytic coherence model1.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)164 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1243 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.6)
7Northeast USCRITICAL1.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501948Very High42.69 N, 79.81 W | CAPE 2148 J/kg | SRH 96 | AzShear 0.00201.8%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-1.8%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2148 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US42.69 N, 79.81 W
Storm motion+5.6E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501948Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501948

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.8%
42.686 N, 79.814 W
MUCAPE 2148 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.686 N, 79.814 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion13 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2148 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH96 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear37 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.7 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.0565 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1647
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-7.9793
S / Gamma ratio3.25 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number20.21
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.06) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.8%
Analytic coherence model1.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)96 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2148 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.7)
8Northeast USCRITICAL1.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 500221Very High40.95 N, 78.15 W | CAPE 2193 J/kg | SRH 111 | AzShear 0.01101.8%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-1.8%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1 MUCAPE 2193 J/kg Flash rate 20/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US40.95 N, 78.15 W
Storm motion+10.0E / +12.5SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID500221Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 500221

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.8%
40.954 N, 78.154 W
Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1 MUCAPE 2193 J/kg Flash rate 20/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates40.954 N, 78.154 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion36 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length7 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2193 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH111 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear37 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.0 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0110 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.52 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate20 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5154 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3355
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.1440
S / Gamma ratio1.02 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number41.15
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.8%
Analytic coherence model1.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)111 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2193 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.0)
9Northeast USCRITICAL1.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501673Very High41.49 N, 78.62 W | CAPE 2284 J/kg | SRH 142 | AzShear 0.00201.8%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-1.8%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2284 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US41.49 N, 78.62 W
Storm motion+9.2E / +7.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501673Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501673

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.8%
41.489 N, 78.624 W
MUCAPE 2284 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.489 N, 78.624 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion27 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2284 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH142 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear36 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.6 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5154 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3355
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.1440
S / Gamma ratio1.02 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number41.15
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.8%
Analytic coherence model1.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)142 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2284 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.6)
10Northeast USCRITICAL1.8% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501821Very High40.90 N, 78.69 W | CAPE 2389 J/kg | SRH 142 | AzShear 0.00501.8%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.8%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.7%-1.8%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2389 J/kg Flash rate 26/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US40.90 N, 78.69 W
Storm motion+6.6E / +12.2SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501821Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501821

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.8%
40.903 N, 78.690 W
MUCAPE 2389 J/kg Flash rate 26/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates40.903 N, 78.690 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion31 mph SSE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2389 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH142 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear36 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.7 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.52 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate26 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5154 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3355
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.1440
S / Gamma ratio1.02 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number41.15
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.8%
Analytic coherence model1.8%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)142 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2389 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.7)
  • Active lightning (26/min) indicates strong updraft
11Northeast USCRITICAL1.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501580Very High41.90 N, 79.98 W | CAPE 3039 J/kg | SRH 231 | AzShear 0.00301.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
1.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.3%-1.7%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3039 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 231 Flash rate 44/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US41.90 N, 79.98 W
Storm motion+8.3E / +8.1SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501580Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501580

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.7%
41.902 N, 79.984 W
MUCAPE 3039 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 231 Flash rate 44/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.902 N, 79.984 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion26 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3039 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH231 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear24 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.7 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.75 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate44 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.2085 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1839
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-10.8122
S / Gamma ratio7.07 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number14.50
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.21) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (7.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.7%
Analytic coherence model1.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)231 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3039 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 3039, SRH 231)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.7)
  • Active lightning (44/min) indicates strong updraft
12Northeast USCRITICAL1.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501606Very High41.34 N, 78.07 W | CAPE 1800 J/kg | SRH 90 | AzShear 0.00901.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.3%-1.7%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.009 s^-1 MUCAPE 1800 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US41.34 N, 78.07 W
Storm motion+10.0E / +11.2SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501606Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501606

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.7%
41.342 N, 78.067 W
Rotation 0.009 s^-1 MUCAPE 1800 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.342 N, 78.067 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion34 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1800 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH90 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear44 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0090 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.27 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate17 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5154 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3355
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.1440
S / Gamma ratio1.02 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number41.15
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.7%
Analytic coherence model1.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)90 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1800 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
1353 mi N of Pittsburgh, PACRITICAL1.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 500222Very High41.13 N, 79.64 W | CAPE 2244 J/kg | SRH 154 | AzShear 0.00701.4%
Threat brief

53 mi N of Pittsburgh, PA

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
1.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.2%-1.4%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 2244 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 154 2/5 singularity conditions
Location53 mi N of Pittsburgh, PA41.13 N, 79.64 W
Storm motion+8.2E / +7.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID500222Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 500222

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.4%
41.133 N, 79.644 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 2244 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 154 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.133 N, 79.644 W
Location53 mi N of Pittsburgh, PA
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion25 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length7 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2244 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH154 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear34 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.6 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.26 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate9 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8436 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1385
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-13.3963
S / Gamma ratio2.92 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number26.49
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.84) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.4%
Analytic coherence model1.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)154 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2244 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 2244, SRH 154)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.6)
1468 mi E of Pittsburgh, PACRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 502018Very High40.88 N, 79.11 W | CAPE 2013 J/kg | SRH 141 | AzShear 0.00101.1%
Threat brief

68 mi E of Pittsburgh, PA

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2013 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location68 mi E of Pittsburgh, PA40.88 N, 79.11 W
Storm motion+5.8E / +11.1SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID502018Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 502018

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
40.879 N, 79.110 W
MUCAPE 2013 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates40.879 N, 79.110 W
Location68 mi E of Pittsburgh, PA
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion28 mph SSE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2013 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH141 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear41 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.5 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.20 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8436 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1385
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-13.3963
S / Gamma ratio2.92 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number26.49
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.84) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)141 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2013 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.5)
15Northeast USCRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501515Very High41.49 N, 77.35 W | CAPE 1277 J/kg | SRH 103 | AzShear 0.00401.1%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1277 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US41.49 N, 77.35 W
Storm motion+12.9E / +7.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501515Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501515

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
41.489 N, 77.353 W
MUCAPE 1277 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.489 N, 77.353 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion33 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1277 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH103 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear41 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.2 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.05 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5227 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1155
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.2739
S / Gamma ratio1.93 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number28.51
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)103 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1277 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.2)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
16Northeast USCRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 502016Very High41.34 N, 77.60 W | CAPE 1619 J/kg | SRH 100 | AzShear 0.00201.1%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1619 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US41.34 N, 77.60 W
Storm motion+12.1E / +7.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID502016Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 502016

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
41.335 N, 77.598 W
MUCAPE 1619 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.335 N, 77.598 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion32 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1619 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH100 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear43 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5227 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1155
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.2739
S / Gamma ratio1.93 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number28.51
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)100 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1619 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
17Northeast USCRITICAL1.0% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501997Very High41.06 N, 77.52 W | CAPE 1523 J/kg | SRH 111 | AzShear 0.00101.0%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
1.0%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.0%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1523 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US41.06 N, 77.52 W
Storm motion+9.8E / +8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501997Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501997

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.0%
41.063 N, 77.522 W
MUCAPE 1523 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates41.063 N, 77.522 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion28 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1523 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH111 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear31 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.2 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5227 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1155
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.2739
S / Gamma ratio1.93 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number28.51
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.0%
Analytic coherence model1.0%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)111 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1523 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.2)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
18Northeast USCRITICAL1.0% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501880Very High42.18 N, 76.37 W | CAPE 1236 J/kg | SRH 97 | AzShear 0.00401.0%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
1.0%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.0%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1236 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US42.18 N, 76.37 W
Storm motion+12.2E / +4.2SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501880Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501880

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.0%
42.179 N, 76.372 W
MUCAPE 1236 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.179 N, 76.372 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion29 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1236 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH97 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear64 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.31 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.5571 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1029
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)3.6817
S / Gamma ratio2.45 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number23.07
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.56) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.0%
Analytic coherence model1.0%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)97 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1236 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
19Northeast USCRITICAL1.0% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501636Very High43.35 N, 77.11 W | CAPE 2151 J/kg | SRH 40 | AzShear 0.00301.0%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.0%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.0%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2151 J/kg
LocationNortheast US43.35 N, 77.11 W
Storm motion+6.4E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501636Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501636

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.0%
43.352 N, 77.107 W
MUCAPE 2151 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates43.352 N, 77.107 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion14 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2151 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH40 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear62 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.8 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.05 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3819 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3431
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-16.0153
S / Gamma ratio0.73 (Near balance)
Damkohler number53.93
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.38) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.7) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.0%
Analytic coherence model1.0%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)40 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2151 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
20Northeast USCRITICAL0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTCStorm 501773Very High48.36 N, 78.90 W | CAPE 999 J/kg | SRH 148 | AzShear 0.00200.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

CRITICAL
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.7%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US48.36 N, 78.90 W
Storm motion+4.1E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID501773Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 501773

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.7%
48.360 N, 78.900 W
3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates48.360 N, 78.900 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Storm motion9 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE999 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH148 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear47 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.3 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.7956 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.6667
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-7.8180
S / Gamma ratio2.94 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number16.28
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.80) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)148 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)999 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.3)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 501906 -- Coherence fields

2.4%
Tornado probability (90% band: 2.3%-2.4%)
tau1.4275
grad_tau0.2848
torsion0.0000
alignment-6.0184
S_field1.1539
Gamma_field0.5388
S / Gamma2.1415
Da (Damkohler)34.1899
E_coh0.7686
Singularity count2.0000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met2 / 5
s_over_gammaYES
high_gradientno
high_torsionno
positive_alignmentno
high_damkohlerYES

Storm parameters

Location43.2353, -76.6116
CAPE2341 J/kg
0-1km SRH63 m^2/s^2
Eff. bulk shear68 kt
MaxLLAz0.0050 /s
Valid time2026-09-02 14:00:38 UTC
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Evidence and replay

See the evidence

Every forecast links to the exact data and model that produced it. Nothing is hidden.

Browse evidence

Check our track record

How often are we right? We publish accuracy scores publicly, broken down by region and severity.

See accuracy

Replay any forecast

Download the input data and re-run any past forecast yourself. Same data in, same result out - guaranteed.

Download replay