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Global Tornado Monitor

24-hour tornado formation probability for the world's most active severe convection zones. Ranked by composite STP/SCP indices with full evidence.

What should I do?

There are currently 98 storm cells being tracked. Monitor weather.gov for official warnings in your area. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor.

Global tornado activity map

Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.

HazardPulse Global Hazard Map Fiji Fiji Fiji Tanzania W. Sahara Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America United States of America Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Argentina Argentina Chile Chile Dem. Rep. Congo Somalia Kenya Sudan Chad Haiti Dominican Rep. Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia Bahamas Bahamas Bahamas Falkland Is. Norway Norway Norway Norway Greenland Fr. S. Antarctic Lands Timor-Leste South Africa South Africa Lesotho Mexico Uruguay Brazil Bolivia Peru Colombia Panama Costa Rica Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Guatemala Belize Venezuela Guyana Suriname France France France Ecuador Puerto Rico Jamaica Cuba Zimbabwe Botswana Namibia Senegal Mali Mauritania Benin Niger Nigeria Cameroon Togo Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Central African Rep. Congo Gabon Eq. Guinea Zambia Malawi Mozambique eSwatini Angola Angola Burundi Israel Lebanon Madagascar Palestine Gambia Tunisia Algeria Jordan United Arab Emirates Qatar Kuwait Iraq Oman Oman Vanuatu Vanuatu Cambodia Thailand Laos Myanmar Vietnam North Korea North Korea South Korea Mongolia India Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal Pakistan Afghanistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Iran Syria Armenia Sweden Belarus Ukraine Poland Austria Hungary Moldova Romania Lithuania Latvia Estonia Germany Bulgaria Greece Greece Turkey Turkey Albania Croatia Switzerland Luxembourg Belgium Netherlands Portugal Spain Ireland New Caledonia Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. Solomon Is. New Zealand New Zealand Australia Australia Sri Lanka China China Taiwan Italy Italy Italy Denmark Denmark United Kingdom United Kingdom Iceland Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Georgia Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Philippines Malaysia Malaysia Brunei Slovenia Finland Slovakia Czechia Eritrea Japan Japan Japan Paraguay Yemen Saudi Arabia Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica Antarctica N. Cyprus Cyprus Morocco Egypt Libya Ethiopia Djibouti Somaliland Uganda Rwanda Bosnia and Herz. North Macedonia Serbia Montenegro Kosovo Trinidad and Tobago S. Sudan Atlantic E. Pacific W. Pacific N. Indian S. Indian Australian Tornado Alley Dixie Alley Pampas Bangladesh Storm 911508 2.1% · Rank #1 Storm 910895 2.1% · Rank #2 Storm 911428 0.7% · Rank #3 Storm 911468 0.7% · Rank #4 Storm 911509 0.7% · Rank #5 Storm 911120 0.7% · Rank #6 Storm 909928 0.7% · Rank #7 Storm 911204 0.7% · Rank #8 Storm 911403 0.4% · Rank #9 Storm 911466 0.4% · Rank #10 Storm 911313 0.4% · Rank #11 Storm 911505 0.4% · Rank #12 Storm 911397 0.3% · Rank #13 Storm 911503 0.3% · Rank #14 Storm 911348 0.3% · Rank #15 Storm 911453 0.2% · Rank #16 Storm 911308 0.2% · Rank #17 Storm 911323 0.2% · Rank #18 Storm 911504 0.2% · Rank #19 Storm 911227 0.2% · Rank #20
Tornado cell Tornado-prone region Your location

Storm locations

Active ProbSevere storm objects. Click markers for details.

Last updateWed, 15 Jul 2026 05:01:24 UTC (every 2 hr)
Scoring modelML (pre-trained gradient-boosted trees)
Active storms98 storms
Coherence sourceHRRR 80 km grid

Active storms by tornado probability

ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.

1Northeast USCRITICAL2.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911508Very High45.65 N, 71.01 W | CAPE 1914 J/kg | SRH 205 | AzShear 0.00202.1%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
2.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 2.0%-2.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1914 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 205
LocationNortheast US45.65 N, 71.01 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911508Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911508

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
2.1%
45.646 N, 71.014 W
MUCAPE 1914 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 205
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.646 N, 71.014 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1914 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH205 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear60 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.5 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.05 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3346 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1803
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-18.2318
S / Gamma ratio7.46 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number9.91
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.33) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (7.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.


Model Confidence
Combined probability2.1%
Analytic coherence model2.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)205 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1914 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1914, SRH 205)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.5)
2Northeast USCRITICAL2.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 910895Very High43.85 N, 70.59 W | CAPE 2431 J/kg | SRH 174 | AzShear 0.00402.1%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
2.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 2.0%-2.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2431 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 174 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US43.85 N, 70.59 W
Storm motion+5.3E / +2.9SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID910895Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 910895

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
2.1%
43.855 N, 70.593 W
MUCAPE 2431 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 174 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates43.855 N, 70.593 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion14 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2431 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH174 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear51 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.8 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.20 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8485 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5447
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-7.5385
S / Gamma ratio3.41 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number22.02
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.85) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.


Model Confidence
Combined probability2.1%
Analytic coherence model2.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)174 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2431 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~2% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 2431, SRH 174)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.8)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
3Northeast USCRITICAL0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911428Very High45.01 N, 74.85 W | CAPE 2892 J/kg | SRH 68 | AzShear 0.00400.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2892 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.01 N, 74.85 W
Storm motion+3.5E / +1.6SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911428Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911428

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.7%
45.007 N, 74.850 W
MUCAPE 2892 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.007 N, 74.850 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion9 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2892 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH68 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear69 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.7 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.32 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate17 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6066 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3030
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.8538
S / Gamma ratio3.03 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number17.88
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)68 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2892 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.7)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
4Northeast USCRITICAL0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911468Very High44.80 N, 75.01 W | CAPE 2592 J/kg | SRH 137 | AzShear 0.00300.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2592 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US44.80 N, 75.01 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +1.3SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911468Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911468

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.7%
44.804 N, 75.014 W
MUCAPE 2592 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates44.804 N, 75.014 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion9 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2592 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH137 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear60 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.2 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.54 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate11 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6066 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3030
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.8538
S / Gamma ratio3.03 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number17.88
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)137 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2592 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.2)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
5Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911509High45.14 N, 74.72 W | CAPE 2961 J/kg | SRH 60 | AzShear 0.00100.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2961 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.14 N, 74.72 W
Storm motion+3.4E / +1.8SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911509Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911509

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
45.139 N, 74.724 W
MUCAPE 2961 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.139 N, 74.724 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion9 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2961 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH60 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear70 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.6 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.6066 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3030
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.8538
S / Gamma ratio3.03 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number17.88
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.61) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)60 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2961 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.6)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
6Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911120High47.37 N, 69.52 W | CAPE 1421 J/kg | SRH 114 | AzShear 0.00400.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.7%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1421 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US47.37 N, 69.52 W
Storm motion+4.1E / +3.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911120Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911120

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
47.366 N, 69.520 W
MUCAPE 1421 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.366 N, 69.520 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion12 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1421 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH114 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear49 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.28 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.0640 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4337
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)-0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-0.5218
S / Gamma ratio2.01 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.99
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.06) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)114 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1421 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
7Northeast USHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 909928High44.53 N, 75.26 W | CAPE 3140 J/kg | SRH 124 | AzShear 0.01100.7%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1 MUCAPE 3140 J/kg Flash rate 38/min 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US44.53 N, 75.26 W
Storm motion+3.9E / +3.1SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID909928Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 909928

This storm has strong rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
44.526 N, 75.256 W
Strong rotation 0.011 s^-1 MUCAPE 3140 J/kg Flash rate 38/min 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates44.526 N, 75.256 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion11 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length7 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3140 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH124 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear56 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.3 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0110 s^-1 (Strong rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)3.39 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate38 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3380 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0971
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)7.6526
S / Gamma ratio1.41 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number36.89
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.34) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)124 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3140 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, MAXLLAZ>0.01) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Strong low-level rotation detected (AzShear > 0.01)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.3)
  • Active lightning (38/min) indicates strong updraft
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
8High PlainsHIGH0.7% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911204High47.07 N, 108.00 W | CAPE 1276 J/kg | SRH 128 | AzShear 0.00500.7%
Threat brief

High Plains

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

HIGH
0.7%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.4%-0.7%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1276 J/kg Flash rate 31/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains47.07 N, 108.00 W
Storm motion+6.0E / -8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911204Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911204

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.7%
47.067 N, 107.997 W
MUCAPE 1276 J/kg Flash rate 31/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.067 N, 107.997 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion22 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1276 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH128 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear50 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.5 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.65 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate31 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6677 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1019
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.1444
S / Gamma ratio1.68 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.45
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.67) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.7%
Analytic coherence model0.7%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)128 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1276 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.5)
  • Active lightning (31/min) indicates strong updraft
9Northeast USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911403High44.87 N, 75.58 W | CAPE 2897 J/kg | SRH 72 | AzShear 0.00200.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2897 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US44.87 N, 75.58 W
Storm motion+2.6E / -1.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911403Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911403

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
44.874 N, 75.584 W
MUCAPE 2897 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates44.874 N, 75.584 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion6 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2897 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH72 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear57 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.9 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.14 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.3380 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0971
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)7.6526
S / Gamma ratio1.41 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number36.89
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.34) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)72 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2897 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.9)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
10Northeast USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911466High45.93 N, 72.92 W | CAPE 1473 J/kg | SRH 74 | AzShear 0.00000.4%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1473 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US45.93 N, 72.92 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911466Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911466

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
45.926 N, 72.921 W
MUCAPE 1473 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.926 N, 72.921 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1473 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH74 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear63 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.0 (Marginal)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.8745 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3907
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)12.3092
S / Gamma ratio2.00 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number15.38
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.87) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.0) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)74 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1473 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
1136 mi W of Nashville, TNHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911313High36.33 N, 87.28 W | CAPE 2105 J/kg | SRH 33 | AzShear 0.00200.4%
Threat brief

36 mi W of Nashville, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2105 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location36 mi W of Nashville, TN36.33 N, 87.28 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911313Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911313

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
36.329 N, 87.277 W
MUCAPE 2105 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.329 N, 87.277 W
Location36 mi W of Nashville, TN
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2105 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH33 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear23 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.4 (Low)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.03 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1163 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0773
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.0531
S / Gamma ratio1.59 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number20.74
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.12) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)33 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2105 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
12High PlainsHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911505High46.70 N, 107.77 W | CAPE 1654 J/kg | SRH 235 | AzShear 0.00600.4%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 1654 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 235 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains46.70 N, 107.77 W
Storm motion+2.6E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911505Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911505

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
46.703 N, 107.773 W
Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 1654 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 235 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates46.703 N, 107.773 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion13 mph NNE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1654 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH235 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear60 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.5 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.31 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6677 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1019
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-8.1444
S / Gamma ratio1.68 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.45
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.67) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)235 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1654 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1654, SRH 235)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.5)
13High PlainsELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911397Moderate45.75 N, 108.12 W | CAPE 1700 J/kg | SRH 77 | AzShear 0.00700.3%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.3%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.3%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 1700 J/kg Flash rate 23/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains45.75 N, 108.12 W
Storm motion+6.8E / -7.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911397Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911397

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.3%
45.751 N, 108.124 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 1700 J/kg Flash rate 23/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates45.751 N, 108.124 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion22 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1700 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH77 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear42 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.2 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.86 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate23 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6620 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0444
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.6436
S / Gamma ratio0.98 (Near balance)
Damkohler number12.57
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.66) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (1.0) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.3%
Analytic coherence model0.3%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)77 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1700 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.2)
  • Active lightning (23/min) indicates strong updraft
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
14High PlainsELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911503Moderate47.45 N, 108.08 W | CAPE 1169 J/kg | SRH 106 | AzShear 0.00100.3%
Threat brief

High Plains

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

ELEVATED
0.3%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.3%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1169 J/kg
LocationHigh Plains47.45 N, 108.08 W
Storm motion+6.0E / -8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911503Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911503

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.3%
47.450 N, 108.076 W
MUCAPE 1169 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.450 N, 108.076 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion22 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1169 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH106 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear39 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.07 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.5098 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1910
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.1755
S / Gamma ratio0.82 (Near balance)
Damkohler number11.23
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.51) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.8) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.3%
Analytic coherence model0.3%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)106 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1169 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
15Northeast USELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911348Moderate42.36 N, 79.21 W | CAPE 1580 J/kg | SRH 244 | AzShear 0.00100.3%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.3%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.3%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1580 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 244 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US42.36 N, 79.21 W
Storm motion+3.7E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911348Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911348

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.3%
42.364 N, 79.215 W
MUCAPE 1580 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 244 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates42.364 N, 79.215 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion8 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1580 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH244 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear22 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.9 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.7406 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0692
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)13.2589
S / Gamma ratio0.84 (Near balance)
Damkohler number63.81
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.74) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.8) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.3%
Analytic coherence model0.3%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)244 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1580 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1580, SRH 244)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.9)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
16High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911453Moderate46.08 N, 108.23 W | CAPE 1650 J/kg | SRH 98 | AzShear 0.01000.2%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

Rotation 0.010 s^-1 MUCAPE 1650 J/kg Flash rate 26/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains46.08 N, 108.23 W
Storm motion+4.1E / -6.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911453Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911453

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
46.078 N, 108.230 W
Rotation 0.010 s^-1 MUCAPE 1650 J/kg Flash rate 26/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates46.078 N, 108.230 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion16 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1650 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH98 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear51 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0100 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)1.81 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate26 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6538 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0542
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)0.6898
S / Gamma ratio0.66 (Near balance)
Damkohler number13.70
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.65) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.7) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)98 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1650 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
  • Active lightning (26/min) indicates strong updraft
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
17High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911308Moderate46.24 N, 108.63 W | CAPE 1976 J/kg | SRH 66 | AzShear 0.00800.2%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

Rotation 0.008 s^-1 MUCAPE 1976 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains46.24 N, 108.63 W
Storm motion+4.5E / -7.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911308Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911308

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
46.242 N, 108.635 W
Rotation 0.008 s^-1 MUCAPE 1976 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates46.242 N, 108.635 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion19 mph NNE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1976 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH66 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear41 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.2 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0080 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.27 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate10 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.6538 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0542
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)0.6898
S / Gamma ratio0.66 (Near balance)
Damkohler number13.70
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.65) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.7) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)66 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1976 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.2)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
18High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911323Moderate46.55 N, 107.86 W | CAPE 1652 J/kg | SRH 218 | AzShear 0.00500.2%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1652 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 218 Flash rate 23/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains46.55 N, 107.86 W
Storm motion+1.6E / -4.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911323Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911323

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
46.546 N, 107.856 W
MUCAPE 1652 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 218 Flash rate 23/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates46.546 N, 107.856 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion10 mph NNE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1652 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH218 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear62 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate3.2 (Significant tornado environment)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.78 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate23 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.7119 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0171
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-3.8537
S / Gamma ratio1.48 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.50
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.71) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.5) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)218 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1652 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 1652, SRH 218)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 3.2)
  • Active lightning (23/min) indicates strong updraft
19Northeast USELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911504Moderate47.39 N, 69.81 W | CAPE 1650 J/kg | SRH 117 | AzShear 0.00300.2%
Threat brief

Northeast US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1650 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNortheast US47.39 N, 69.81 W
Storm motion+4.1E / +3.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911504Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911504

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
47.388 N, 69.809 W
MUCAPE 1650 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.388 N, 69.809 W
LocationNortheast US
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion12 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1650 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH117 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear57 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.7 (Tornado possible)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.24 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1491 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5126
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)7.3298
S / Gamma ratio0.98 (Near balance)
Damkohler number23.56
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.15) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (1.0) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)117 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1650 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.7)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
20High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTCStorm 911227Moderate48.78 N, 102.51 W | CAPE 731 J/kg | SRH 107 | AzShear 0.00500.2%
Threat brief

High Plains

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

LocationHigh Plains48.78 N, 102.51 W
Storm motion+4.3E / -1.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID911227Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 911227

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
48.780 N, 102.507 W
Location & Timing
Coordinates48.780 N, 102.507 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Storm motion10 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml

Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE731 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH107 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear57 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.7 (Marginal)

Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.34 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3

Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0

ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%

Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.0000 (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3765
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-3.2770
S / Gamma ratio0.80 (Near balance)
Damkohler number35.47
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr

Coherence Interpretation

Weak coherence (tau=0.00) - limited atmospheric organization.

Source/damping ratio (0.8) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.


Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)107 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)731 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring

Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)

Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 911508 -- Coherence fields

2.1%
Tornado probability (90% band: 2.0%-2.1%)
tau2.3346
grad_tau0.1803
torsion0.0000
alignment-18.2318
S_field1.3519
Gamma_field0.1812
S / Gamma7.4626
Da (Damkohler)9.9145
E_coh0.5617
Singularity count1.0000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met1 / 5
s_over_gammaYES
high_gradientno
high_torsionno
positive_alignmentno
high_damkohlerno

Storm parameters

Location45.6456, -71.0144
CAPE1914 J/kg
0-1km SRH205 m^2/s^2
Eff. bulk shear60 kt
MaxLLAz0.0020 /s
Valid time2026-07-15 04:30:40 UTC
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

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