Live seismic intelligence

Global Earthquake Monitor

30-day M6.0+ earthquake probability for the world's most active seismic zones. Grid cells ranked by coherence field singularity conditions with full evidence.

Global seismic activity map

2-degree grid cells colored by M6.0+ probability. Markers show top 10 risk zones. Hover for details.

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Seismic zone Plate boundary Your location
Independent hazard intelligence platform. Always follow official USGS and national geological survey guidance. See earthquake.usgs.gov for authoritative data.
Last updateWed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 UTC
Modeleq_coherence_v1_0
Active cells90 cells scored
Events (30 d)1835 M2.5+

Top risk cells by seismic criticality

2-degree grid cells ranked by estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days). Click any row to expand coherence diagnostics.

159S, 27WCritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active59S, 27WCritical6 events in-window | Mmax 5.4 | Rate 0.78x | S/Gamma 16.453.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 59S, 27W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.5x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 16.5 Corr. length trend -1.4 km/mo Mmax 5.4 in-window
Recent events6Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.4Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.78xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 59S, 27W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.5x. The current window contains 6 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.4.

Critical
3.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.060
b-value trend--
Correlation length64.0 km
Corr. length trend-1.43 km/month
Rate acceleration0.78x
IET delta-AIC147.95
S / Gamma16.452
Days to criticality20
Depth trend0.18 km
Spatial concentration75.7 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 6 recent events, max magnitude 5.4.
255S, 25WCritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active55S, 25WCritical6 events in-window | Mmax 5.0 | Rate 1.01x | S/Gamma 10.283.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 55S, 25W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 10.3x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 10.3 Corr. length trend +1.2 km/mo Mmax 5.0 in-window
Recent events6Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.0Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.01xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 55S, 25W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 10.3x. The current window contains 6 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.0.

Critical
3.5%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length86.2 km
Corr. length trend1.22 km/month
Rate acceleration1.01x
IET delta-AIC110.18
S / Gamma10.276
Days to criticality49
Depth trend1.85 km
Spatial concentration47.6 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 6 recent events, max magnitude 5.0.
323S, 171ECritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active23S, 171ECritical18 events in-window | Mmax 6.3 | Rate 1.19x | S/Gamma 16.243.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 23S, 171E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.2x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 16.2 Corr. length trend -9.5 km/mo Mmax 6.3 in-window
Recent events18Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM6.3Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.19xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 23S, 171E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.2x. The current window contains 18 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 6.3.

Critical
3.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length63.8 km
Corr. length trend-9.54 km/month
Rate acceleration1.19x
IET delta-AIC139.50
S / Gamma16.240
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-8.95 km
Spatial concentration66.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 18 recent events, max magnitude 6.3.
421S, 169ECritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active21S, 169ECritical6 events in-window | Mmax 5.8 | Rate 1.18x | S/Gamma 16.023.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 21S, 169E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.0x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 16.0 Corr. length trend -1.9 km/mo Mmax 5.8 in-window
Recent events6Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.18xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 21S, 169E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.0x. The current window contains 6 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.8.

Critical
3.5%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.163
b-value trend--
Correlation length105.3 km
Corr. length trend-1.85 km/month
Rate acceleration1.18x
IET delta-AIC146.60
S / Gamma16.025
Days to criticality16
Depth trend-10.18 km
Spatial concentration70.8 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 6 recent events, max magnitude 5.8.
529N, 105ECritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active29N, 105ECritical7 events in-window | Mmax 5.2 | Rate 1.70x | S/Gamma 13.613.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 29N, 105E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 13.6x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.7x S/Gamma 13.6 Corr. length trend -7.0 km/mo Mmax 5.2 in-window
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.2Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.70xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 29N, 105E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 13.6x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.2.

Critical
3.5%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length9.0 km
Corr. length trend-7.01 km/month
Rate acceleration1.70x
IET delta-AIC46.65
S / Gamma13.612
Days to criticality2098
Depth trend2.89 km
Spatial concentration72.6 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 5.2.
69S, 119ECritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active9S, 119ECritical7 events in-window | Mmax 5.1 | Rate 1.37x | S/Gamma 14.823.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 9S, 119E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 14.8x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.4x b-value 0.99 S/Gamma 14.8 Corr. length trend +4.2 km/mo
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.1Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.37xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 9S, 119E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 14.8x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.1.

Critical
3.5%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.987
b-value trend--
Correlation length100.7 km
Corr. length trend4.19 km/month
Rate acceleration1.37x
IET delta-AIC73.76
S / Gamma14.825
Days to criticality256
Depth trend-15.40 km
Spatial concentration68.5 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 5.1.
731N, 69ECritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active31N, 69ECritical5 events in-window | Mmax 5.4 | Rate 1.50x | S/Gamma 13.963.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 31N, 69E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 14.0x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.5x S/Gamma 14.0 Mmax 5.4 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.4Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.50xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 31N, 69E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 14.0x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.4.

Critical
3.5%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length42.9 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration1.50x
IET delta-AIC22.60
S / Gamma13.962
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-2.75 km
Spatial concentration86.9 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 5.4.
819N, 65WCritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active19N, 65WCritical58 events in-window | Mmax 4.4 | Rate 1.19x | S/Gamma 14.053.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 19N, 65W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 14.0x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 14.0 Mmax 4.4 in-window
Recent events58Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.4Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.19xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 19N, 65W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 14.0x. The current window contains 58 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.4.

Critical
3.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.216
b-value trend-0.0487
Correlation length33.3 km
Corr. length trend0.17 km/month
Rate acceleration1.19x
IET delta-AIC1224.15
S / Gamma14.048
Days to criticality-0
Depth trend-1.52 km
Spatial concentration47.8 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 58 recent events, max magnitude 4.4.
919N, 155WCritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active19N, 155WCritical29 events in-window | Mmax 4.5 | Rate 1.47x | S/Gamma 13.503.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 19N, 155W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 13.5x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.5x b-value 0.89 S/Gamma 13.5 Mmax 4.5 in-window
Recent events29Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.5Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.47xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 19N, 155W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 13.5x. The current window contains 29 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.5.

Critical
3.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.892
b-value trend-0.0599
Correlation length5.5 km
Corr. length trend0.48 km/month
Rate acceleration1.47x
IET delta-AIC224.93
S / Gamma13.499
Days to criticality59
Depth trend-2.94 km
Spatial concentration33.4 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 29 recent events, max magnitude 4.5.
1015N, 93WCritical3.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active15N, 93WCritical5 events in-window | Mmax 5.0 | Rate 0.81x | S/Gamma 15.883.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 15N, 93W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.9x.

Critical
3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.9 Corr. length trend +6.8 km/mo Mmax 5.0 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.0Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.81xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 15N, 93W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.9x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.0.

Critical
3.5%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.050
b-value trend--
Correlation length77.2 km
Corr. length trend6.80 km/month
Rate acceleration0.81x
IET delta-AIC126.72
S / Gamma15.875
Days to criticality68
Depth trend6.53 km
Spatial concentration87.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 5.0.

Top risk cell -- coherence diagnostics

59S, 27W -- Coherence fields

3.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days) (90% band: 3.4%-3.5%)
b-value (GR)1.0600
Correlation length (km)64.0000
Corr. length trend (km/mo)-1.4300
Rate acceleration0.7800
IET delta-AIC147.9500
S / Gamma16.4520
tau (coherence field)0.0000
grad(tau)1.0973
Days to criticality20.1000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met1 / 5
Corr. length elevated (>1.5x bg)no
b-value depressed (<0.85)no
IET Lorentzian (delta-AIC < -2)no
Rate accelerating (>1.5x)no
Loading > healing (S/Gamma > 1)YES

Cell statistics

Location59S, 27W
Events (30 days)6
Max magnitudeM5.4
b-value trend--
Depth trend0.18 km
Model versioneq_coherence_v1_0

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