Live seismic intelligence

Global Earthquake Monitor

30-day M6.0+ earthquake probability for the world's most active seismic zones. Grid cells ranked by coherence field singularity conditions with full evidence.

Global seismic activity map

2-degree grid cells colored by M6.0+ probability. Markers show top 10 risk zones. Hover for details.

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Seismic zone Plate boundary Your location
Independent hazard intelligence platform. Always follow official USGS and national geological survey guidance. See earthquake.usgs.gov for authoritative data.
Last updateWed, 02 Sep 2026 11:00:00 UTC
Modeleq_coherence_v1_0
Active cells84 cells scored
Events (30 d)2181 M2.5+

Top risk cells by seismic criticality

2-degree grid cells ranked by estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days). Click any row to expand coherence diagnostics.

17S, 127ECritical15.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active7S, 127ECritical7 events in-window | Mmax 6.0 | Rate 1.19x | S/Gamma 16.0915.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 7S, 127E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.1x.

Critical
15.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 14.6%-15.8%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 16.1 Mmax 6.0 in-window
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM6.0Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.19xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 7S, 127E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.1x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 6.0.

Critical
15.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.333
b-value trend--
Correlation length56.9 km
Corr. length trend0.77 km/month
Rate acceleration1.19x
IET delta-AIC162.70
S / Gamma16.088
Days to criticality56
Depth trend-9.80 km
Spatial concentration79.1 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 15.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 6.0.
27S, 129ECritical15.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active7S, 129ECritical7 events in-window | Mmax 4.8 | Rate 0.79x | S/Gamma 15.1215.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 7S, 129E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.1x.

Critical
15.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 14.6%-15.8%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.1 Corr. length trend +2.2 km/mo Mmax 4.8 in-window
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.79xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 7S, 129E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.1x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.8.

Critical
15.7%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.305
b-value trend0.0796
Correlation length96.3 km
Corr. length trend2.18 km/month
Rate acceleration0.79x
IET delta-AIC213.04
S / Gamma15.121
Days to criticality20
Depth trend-2.23 km
Spatial concentration69.7 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 15.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 4.8.
321S, 177WCritical15.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active21S, 177WCritical7 events in-window | Mmax 4.9 | Rate 1.08x | S/Gamma 15.7515.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 21S, 177W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.7x.

Critical
15.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 14.6%-15.8%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.7 Corr. length trend -1.9 km/mo Mmax 4.9 in-window
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.9Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.08xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 21S, 177W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.7x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.9.

Critical
15.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.429
b-value trend-0.2020
Correlation length74.3 km
Corr. length trend-1.95 km/month
Rate acceleration1.08x
IET delta-AIC291.09
S / Gamma15.749
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-8.16 km
Spatial concentration90.6 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 15.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 4.9.
421S, 69WCritical15.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active21S, 69WCritical5 events in-window | Mmax 4.6 | Rate 0.75x | S/Gamma 15.3915.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 21S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.4x.

Critical
15.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 14.6%-15.8%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.4 Corr. length trend -2.7 km/mo Mmax 4.6 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.6Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.75xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 21S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.4x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.6.

Critical
15.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.086
b-value trend-0.1144
Correlation length66.2 km
Corr. length trend-2.73 km/month
Rate acceleration0.75x
IET delta-AIC225.37
S / Gamma15.394
Days to criticality2097
Depth trend-1.75 km
Spatial concentration84.9 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 15.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 4.6.
523S, 67WCritical15.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active23S, 67WCritical5 events in-window | Mmax 4.5 | Rate 0.93x | S/Gamma 15.6215.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 23S, 67W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x.

Critical
15.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 14.6%-15.8%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.6 Mmax 4.5 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.5Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.93xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 23S, 67W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.5.

Critical
15.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.582
b-value trend0.1046
Correlation length33.6 km
Corr. length trend0.53 km/month
Rate acceleration0.93x
IET delta-AIC278.50
S / Gamma15.621
Days to criticality18
Depth trend4.59 km
Spatial concentration42.5 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 15.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 4.5.
65N, 125ECritical15.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active5N, 125ECritical46 events in-window | Mmax 6.3 | Rate 4.44x | S/Gamma 15.7115.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 5N, 125E

This cell stands out because event rate is 4.4x the local background and loading exceeds healing by 15.7x.

Critical
15.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 14.6%-15.8%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 4.4x S/Gamma 15.7 Corr. length trend +4.0 km/mo Mmax 6.3 in-window
Recent events46Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM6.3Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration4.44xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 5N, 125E

This cell stands out because event rate is 4.4x the local background and loading exceeds healing by 15.7x. The current window contains 46 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 6.3.

Critical
15.7%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.164
b-value trend-0.0701
Correlation length40.6 km
Corr. length trend4.04 km/month
Rate acceleration4.44x
IET delta-AIC371.55
S / Gamma15.705
Days to criticality14
Depth trend-22.41 km
Spatial concentration86.4 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 15.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 46 recent events, max magnitude 6.3.
723S, 179WCritical15.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active23S, 179WCritical7 events in-window | Mmax 4.8 | Rate 1.00x | S/Gamma 15.5515.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 23S, 179W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x.

Critical
15.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 14.6%-15.8%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.6 Corr. length trend -1.6 km/mo Mmax 4.8 in-window
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.00xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 23S, 179W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.8.

Critical
15.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.546
b-value trend-0.1092
Correlation length56.0 km
Corr. length trend-1.62 km/month
Rate acceleration1.00x
IET delta-AIC298.25
S / Gamma15.554
Days to criticality19
Depth trend0.58 km
Spatial concentration84.7 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 15.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 4.8.
85N, 127ECritical14.4% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active5N, 127ECritical13 events in-window | Mmax 5.0 | Rate 3.43x | S/Gamma 15.1914.4%
Threat brief

Grid cell 5N, 127E

This cell stands out because event rate is 3.4x the local background and loading exceeds healing by 15.2x.

Critical
14.4%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.6%-15.8%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 3.4x S/Gamma 15.2 Mmax 5.0 in-window
Recent events13Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.0Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration3.43xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 5N, 127E

This cell stands out because event rate is 3.4x the local background and loading exceeds healing by 15.2x. The current window contains 13 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.0.

Critical
14.4%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.167
b-value trend-0.0217
Correlation length48.7 km
Corr. length trend-0.51 km/month
Rate acceleration3.43x
IET delta-AIC446.77
S / Gamma15.189
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-7.39 km
Spatial concentration73.9 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 14.4% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 13 recent events, max magnitude 5.0.
937N, 71ECritical6.9% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active37N, 71ECritical11 events in-window | Mmax 5.2 | Rate 0.99x | S/Gamma 15.596.9%
Threat brief

Grid cell 37N, 71E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x.

Critical
6.9%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.6%-6.9%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.6 Corr. length trend +2.6 km/mo Mmax 5.2 in-window
Recent events11Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.2Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.99xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 37N, 71E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x. The current window contains 11 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.2.

Critical
6.9%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.137
b-value trend--
Correlation length46.1 km
Corr. length trend2.62 km/month
Rate acceleration0.99x
IET delta-AIC218.93
S / Gamma15.586
Days to criticality180
Depth trend39.46 km
Spatial concentration87.4 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 6.9% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 11 recent events, max magnitude 5.2.
101N, 127ECritical6.9% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active1N, 127ECritical9 events in-window | Mmax 5.7 | Rate 0.49x | S/Gamma 15.656.9%
Threat brief

Grid cell 1N, 127E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.7x.

Critical
6.9%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.6%-6.9%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.7 Corr. length trend -10.9 km/mo Mmax 5.7 in-window
Recent events9Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.7Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.49xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 1N, 127E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.7x. The current window contains 9 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.7.

Critical
6.9%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.319
b-value trend-0.0514
Correlation length35.2 km
Corr. length trend-10.92 km/month
Rate acceleration0.49x
IET delta-AIC567.91
S / Gamma15.653
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-1.98 km
Spatial concentration77.5 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 6.9% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 9 recent events, max magnitude 5.7.

Top risk cell -- coherence diagnostics

7S, 127E -- Coherence fields

15.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days) (90% band: 14.6%-15.8%)
b-value (GR)1.3330
Correlation length (km)56.9000
Corr. length trend (km/mo)0.7700
Rate acceleration1.1900
IET delta-AIC162.7000
S / Gamma16.0880
tau (coherence field)6.8024
grad(tau)1.0677
Days to criticality56.3000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met1 / 5
Corr. length elevated (>1.5x bg)no
b-value depressed (<0.85)no
IET Lorentzian (delta-AIC < -2)no
Rate accelerating (>1.5x)no
Loading > healing (S/Gamma > 1)YES

Cell statistics

Location7S, 127E
Events (30 days)7
Max magnitudeM6.0
b-value trend--
Depth trend-9.80 km
Model versioneq_coherence_v1_0

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