Live seismic intelligence

Global Earthquake Monitor

30-day M6.0+ earthquake probability for the world's most active seismic zones. Grid cells ranked by coherence field singularity conditions with full evidence.

Global seismic activity map

2-degree grid cells colored by M6.0+ probability. Markers show top 10 risk zones. Hover for details.

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Seismic zone Plate boundary Your location
Independent hazard intelligence platform. Always follow official USGS and national geological survey guidance. See earthquake.usgs.gov for authoritative data.
Last updateWed, 15 Apr 2026 19:00:00 UTC
Modeleq_coherence_v1_0
Active cells97 cells scored
Events (30 d)2089 M2.5+

Top risk cells by seismic criticality

2-degree grid cells ranked by estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days). Click any row to expand coherence diagnostics.

153N, 169WCritical57.6% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active53N, 169WCritical36 events in-window | Mmax 3.8 | Rate 3.19x | S/Gamma 13.4357.6%
Threat brief

Grid cell 53N, 169W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 3.2x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63.

Critical
57.6%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 3.2x b-value 0.63 S/Gamma 13.4 Corr. length trend -9.5 km/mo
Recent events36Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration3.19xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 53N, 169W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 3.2x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63. The current window contains 36 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.8.

Critical
57.6%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.628
b-value trend0.0453
Correlation length11.5 km
Corr. length trend-9.47 km/month
Rate acceleration3.19x
IET delta-AIC743.21
S / Gamma13.433
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-22.33 km
Spatial concentration79.6 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 57.6% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 36 recent events, max magnitude 3.8.
251N, 169WCritical57.6% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active51N, 169WCritical6 events in-window | Mmax 3.3 | Rate 3.76x | S/Gamma 14.0657.6%
Threat brief

Grid cell 51N, 169W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 3.8x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.61.

Critical
57.6%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 3.8x b-value 0.61 S/Gamma 14.1 Corr. length trend -8.9 km/mo
Recent events6Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.3Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration3.76xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 51N, 169W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 3.8x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.61. The current window contains 6 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.3.

Critical
57.6%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.614
b-value trend0.0501
Correlation length11.3 km
Corr. length trend-8.93 km/month
Rate acceleration3.76x
IET delta-AIC650.45
S / Gamma14.056
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-18.44 km
Spatial concentration76.5 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 57.6% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 6 recent events, max magnitude 3.3.
353N, 167WCritical56.9% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active53N, 167WCritical17 events in-window | Mmax 3.6 | Rate 2.96x | S/Gamma 13.4056.9%
Threat brief

Grid cell 53N, 167W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 3.0x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63.

Critical
56.9%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 3.0x b-value 0.63 S/Gamma 13.4
Recent events17Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.6Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration2.96xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 53N, 167W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 3.0x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63. The current window contains 17 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.6.

Critical
56.9%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.634
b-value trend0.0390
Correlation length11.8 km
Corr. length trend-0.40 km/month
Rate acceleration2.96x
IET delta-AIC812.29
S / Gamma13.405
Days to criticality24
Depth trend-14.49 km
Spatial concentration72.2 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 56.9% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 17 recent events, max magnitude 3.6.
453N, 171WCritical53.1% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active53N, 171WCritical25 events in-window | Mmax 4.7 | Rate 2.77x | S/Gamma 14.0753.1%
Threat brief

Grid cell 53N, 171W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 2.8x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63.

Critical
53.1%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 2.8x b-value 0.63 S/Gamma 14.1 Corr. length trend -9.1 km/mo
Recent events25Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.7Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration2.77xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 53N, 171W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 2.8x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63. The current window contains 25 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.7.

Critical
53.1%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.631
b-value trend-0.0026
Correlation length11.8 km
Corr. length trend-9.05 km/month
Rate acceleration2.77x
IET delta-AIC764.57
S / Gamma14.075
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-25.79 km
Spatial concentration84.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 53.1% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 25 recent events, max magnitude 4.7.
553N, 177ECritical53.0% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active53N, 177ECritical20 events in-window | Mmax 5.3 | Rate 2.76x | S/Gamma 14.7953.0%
Threat brief

Grid cell 53N, 177E

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 2.8x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.46.

Critical
53.0%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 2.8x b-value 0.46 S/Gamma 14.8 Corr. length trend -7.3 km/mo
Recent events20Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.3Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration2.76xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 53N, 177E

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 2.8x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.46. The current window contains 20 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.3.

Critical
53.0%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.464
b-value trend0.1125
Correlation length18.9 km
Corr. length trend-7.34 km/month
Rate acceleration2.76x
IET delta-AIC360.45
S / Gamma14.790
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-46.15 km
Spatial concentration111.2 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 53.0% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 20 recent events, max magnitude 5.3.
621S, 69EVery High48.0% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active21S, 69EVery High31 events in-window | Mmax 5.5 | Rate 9.55x | S/Gamma 4.6448.0%
Threat brief

Grid cell 21S, 69E

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 9.6x the local background, and loading exceeds healing by 4.6x.

Very High
48.0%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 9.6x S/Gamma 4.6 Mmax 5.5 in-window
Recent events31Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.5Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration9.55xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 21S, 69E

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 9.6x the local background, and loading exceeds healing by 4.6x. The current window contains 31 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.5.

Very High
48.0%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length21.7 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration9.55x
IET delta-AIC-41.88
S / Gamma4.642
Days to criticality--
Depth trend0.00 km
Spatial concentration83.8 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianYES
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • IET Lorentzian
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 48.0% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 31 recent events, max magnitude 5.5.
747N, 129WVery High48.0% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active47N, 129WVery High18 events in-window | Mmax 4.2 | Rate 5.25x | S/Gamma 10.6648.0%
Threat brief

Grid cell 47N, 129W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 5.2x the local background, and loading exceeds healing by 10.7x.

Very High
48.0%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 5.2x S/Gamma 10.7 Mmax 4.2 in-window
Recent events18Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.2Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration5.25xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 47N, 129W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 5.2x the local background, and loading exceeds healing by 10.7x. The current window contains 18 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.2.

Very High
48.0%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length14.8 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration5.25x
IET delta-AIC-6.76
S / Gamma10.663
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-0.04 km
Spatial concentration74.1 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianYES
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • IET Lorentzian
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 48.0% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 18 recent events, max magnitude 4.2.
851N, 173WVery High46.6% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active51N, 173WVery High8 events in-window | Mmax 4.6 | Rate 2.43x | S/Gamma 13.7646.6%
Threat brief

Grid cell 51N, 173W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 2.4x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.64.

Very High
46.6%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 2.4x b-value 0.64 S/Gamma 13.8 Corr. length trend -4.5 km/mo
Recent events8Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.6Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration2.43xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 51N, 173W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 2.4x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.64. The current window contains 8 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.6.

Very High
46.6%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.637
b-value trend-0.0510
Correlation length12.5 km
Corr. length trend-4.48 km/month
Rate acceleration2.43x
IET delta-AIC942.86
S / Gamma13.756
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-22.60 km
Spatial concentration71.6 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 46.6% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 8 recent events, max magnitude 4.6.
951N, 177EVery High46.2% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active51N, 177EVery High37 events in-window | Mmax 4.4 | Rate 2.40x | S/Gamma 14.1446.2%
Threat brief

Grid cell 51N, 177E

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 2.4x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.49.

Very High
46.2%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 2.4x b-value 0.49 S/Gamma 14.1 Corr. length trend -8.1 km/mo
Recent events37Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.4Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration2.40xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 51N, 177E

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, event rate is 2.4x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.49. The current window contains 37 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.4.

Very High
46.2%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.488
b-value trend0.0793
Correlation length20.9 km
Corr. length trend-8.11 km/month
Rate acceleration2.40x
IET delta-AIC431.32
S / Gamma14.136
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-32.80 km
Spatial concentration116.0 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 46.2% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 37 recent events, max magnitude 4.4.
1061N, 147WVery High41.9% 30-day seismic watch probability with 4/5 criticality signals active61N, 147WVery High8 events in-window | Mmax 3.0 | Rate 1.64x | S/Gamma 13.1141.9%
Threat brief

Grid cell 61N, 147W

This cell stands out because 4/5 singularity conditions are active, the b-value is compressed at 0.79, and loading exceeds healing by 13.1x.

Very High
41.9%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

4/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.6x b-value 0.79 S/Gamma 13.1
Recent events8Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.0Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.64xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met4 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 61N, 147W

This cell stands out because 4/5 singularity conditions are active, the b-value is compressed at 0.79, and loading exceeds healing by 13.1x. The current window contains 8 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.0.

Very High
41.9%
4 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.790
b-value trend0.1134
Correlation length103.7 km
Corr. length trend0.55 km/month
Rate acceleration1.64x
IET delta-AIC532.82
S / Gamma13.113
Days to criticality313
Depth trend2.51 km
Spatial concentration77.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 41.9% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 8 recent events, max magnitude 3.0.

Top risk cell -- coherence diagnostics

53N, 169W -- Coherence fields

57.6%
Estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days)
b-value (GR)0.6280
Correlation length (km)11.5000
Corr. length trend (km/mo)-9.4700
Rate acceleration3.1900
IET delta-AIC743.2100
S / Gamma13.4330
tau (coherence field)8.1131
grad(tau)0.5428
Days to criticality2098.8000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met3 / 5
Corr. length elevated (>1.5x bg)no
b-value depressed (<0.85)YES
IET Lorentzian (delta-AIC < -2)no
Rate accelerating (>1.5x)YES
Loading > healing (S/Gamma > 1)YES

Cell statistics

Location53N, 169W
Events (30 days)36
Max magnitudeM3.8
b-value trend0.0453
Depth trend-22.33 km
Model versioneq_coherence_v1_0

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