Earthquake · next 30 days

Where a large earthquake is more likely in the next 30 days

Earthquakes cannot be predicted. This forecast gives the chance of at least one magnitude 6+ earthquake in each 2° grid cell of the world over the next 30 days, so you can see where the odds are higher than usual.

Issued
Cells forecast
11,700 (60°S to 70°N)
Earthquakes recorded, last 30 days
1,847 (M2.5+, USGS catalog)
Expected M6+ cells, next 30 days
10.3

Map

For earthquake information, alerts and safety guidance, follow the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and your national geological survey. HazardPulse publishes research forecasts, not warnings.

Map: 30-day chance of an M6+ earthquakeEach shaded 2-degree cell is coloured by its chance of an M6+ earthquake in the next 30 days. Numbered pins mark the ten highest cells, listed below in the same order.1. Southeast of Loyalty Islands: 15.2%12. New Ireland Region, P.N.G.: 10.4%23. Panama: 9.8%34. Mindanao, Philippines: 9.8%45. Near Coast of Chiapas, Mexico: 8.9%56. New Britain Region, P.N.G.: 8.7%67. Off East Coast of Kamchatka: 8.3%78. Vanuatu Islands: 7.9%89. Southeast of Loyalty Islands: 7.6%910. Kermadec Islands, New Zealand: 7.5%10
Chance of an M6+ earthquake in the cell, next 30 days
  • 0.1–0.3%
  • 0.3–1%
  • 1–3%
  • 3–10%
  • 10% or more

Unshaded cells have a chance below 0.1%. Numbered pins match the list below.

After a large earthquake

A large earthquake is often followed by more large earthquakes nearby. Here is how often that has happened.

  • M7.7, 13 km deep, Panama — (10 days before this forecast).

    In the world’s record since 1990, after shallow earthquakes of M7.5 or more, another M6+ struck the same 2° cell within the next 30 days in 24% of cases, counting from a week after it (95% interval 17%–31%; 140 earthquakes). This forecast gives that cell 9.8% for the next 30 days. Our aftershock model in test gives it 18.3% (not the published number).

This is the historical record, not a forecast for this earthquake. Our published model is known to give too low a chance in the first days after a large earthquake (earthquake program section 13). The aftershock model in test was checked on 88 large earthquakes it was not fitted on: a day after each, it gave the epicentre’s cell 25% where 25% had another M6+ (the published model: 13%). It is not yet the published number because it has not passed our check that it leaves ordinary forecasts no worse (earthquake program section 15). Large aftershocks can be as damaging as the first earthquake: follow your local authorities.

Cells with the highest chance

The 20 cells with the highest 30-day chance. Open a row for the cell, its recent earthquakes and one input of the forecast.

  1. 1Southeast of Loyalty Islands21°S 169°E · 86 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M6.715.2%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 82% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    15.2%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 21°S 169°E, 300 km ENE of Nouméa, New Caledonia
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    86 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M6.7
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    3.18×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.18
    Correlation length
    20.7 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    71.7 km
    Depth trend
    −39.4 km
  2. 2New Ireland Region, P.N.G.5°S 153°E · 15 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M6.010.4%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 73% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    10.4%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 5°S 153°E, 690 km ENE of Lae, Papua New Guinea
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    15 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M6.0
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    1.07×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.20
    Correlation length
    95.5 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    61.4 km
    Depth trend
    −7.7 km
  3. 3Panama7°N 81°W · 80 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M7.79.8%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 99% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    9.8%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 7°N 81°W, 220 km SE of David, Panama
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    80 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M7.7
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    14.25×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    0.86
    Correlation length
    22.7 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    75.5 km
    Depth trend
    −0.6 km
  4. 4Mindanao, Philippines5°N 125°E · 7 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.59.8%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 89% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    9.8%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 5°N 125°E, 130 km S of General Santos, Philippines
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    7 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.5
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.67×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.15
    Correlation length
    41.6 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    85.3 km
    Depth trend
    −11.2 km
  5. 5Near Coast of Chiapas, Mexico15°N 93°W · 11 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.28.9%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 87% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    8.9%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 15°N 93°W, 54 km SW of Escuintla, Mexico
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    11 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.2
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    2.26×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    0.90
    Correlation length
    41.2 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    80.6 km
    Depth trend
    −17.0 km
  6. 6New Britain Region, P.N.G.5°S 151°E · 4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.28.7%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 70% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    8.7%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 5°S 151°E, 480 km ENE of Lae, Papua New Guinea
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.2
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.92×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.26
    Correlation length
    89.3 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    88.7 km
    Depth trend
    −22.3 km
  7. 7Off East Coast of Kamchatka53°N 161°E · 5 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.08.3%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 88% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    8.3%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 53°N 161°E, 160 km E of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    5 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.0
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.45×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.20
    Correlation length
    50.7 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    56.9 km
    Depth trend
    −3.9 km
  8. 8Vanuatu Islands19°S 169°E · 1 M2.5+ earthquake in the last 30 days, largest M4.47.9%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 68% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    7.9%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 19°S 169°E, 450 km NE of Nouméa, New Caledonia
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    1 M2.5+ earthquake in the last 30 days, largest M4.4
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    2.95×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.24
    Correlation length
    20.7 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    66.0 km
    Depth trend
    −41.8 km
  9. 9Southeast of Loyalty Islands23°S 171°E · 2 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M4.97.6%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 76% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    7.6%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 23°S 171°E, 470 km E of Nouméa, New Caledonia
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    2 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M4.9
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    1.50×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.33
    Correlation length
    56.4 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    64.8 km
    Depth trend
    3.1 km
  10. 10Kermadec Islands, New Zealand29°S 177°W · 3 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.07.5%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 73% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    7.5%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 29°S 177°W, 1,110 km NE of Whangarei, New Zealand
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    3 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.0
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    1.60×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.16
    Correlation length
    69.7 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    73.5 km
    Depth trend
    5.8 km
  11. 11Vanuatu Islands13°S 167°E · 5 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.27.4%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 67% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    7.4%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 13°S 167°E, 860 km ESE of Honiara, Solomon Islands
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    5 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.2
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    1.15×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.12
    Correlation length
    74.2 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    78.5 km
    Depth trend
    13.2 km
  12. 12Vanuatu Islands15°S 167°E · 1 M2.5+ earthquake in the last 30 days, largest M4.67.2%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 72% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    7.2%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 15°S 167°E, 810 km N of Nouméa, New Caledonia
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    1 M2.5+ earthquake in the last 30 days, largest M4.6
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.91×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.11
    Correlation length
    82.8 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    87.5 km
    Depth trend
    4.3 km
  13. 13Near East Coast of Kamchatka51°N 157°E · 4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M6.97.2%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 89% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    7.2%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 51°N 157°E, 250 km SSW of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M6.9
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.50×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.19
    Correlation length
    44.3 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    80.1 km
    Depth trend
    0.2 km
  14. 14Philippine Islands Region9°N 127°E · 4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M4.77.1%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 71% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    7.1%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 9°N 127°E, 160 km E of Butuan, Philippines
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M4.7
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.80×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.38
    Correlation length
    80.8 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    69.5 km
    Depth trend
    −0.8 km
  15. 15Philippine Islands Region7°N 127°E · 3 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M4.96.9%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 76% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    6.9%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 7°N 127°E, 150 km E of Davao, Philippines
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    3 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M4.9
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.72×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.15
    Correlation length
    42.4 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    73.5 km
    Depth trend
    −2.9 km
  16. 16Tonga Islands15°S 173°W · 3 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.26.9%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 71% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    6.9%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 15°S 173°W, 190 km SW of Apia, Samoa
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    3 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.2
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.63×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.02
    Correlation length
    74.7 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    58.0 km
    Depth trend
    11.4 km
  17. 17Tonga Islands19°S 175°W · 4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.56.6%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 76% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    6.6%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 19°S 175°W, 670 km SSW of Apia, Samoa
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.5
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.81×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.26
    Correlation length
    50.5 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    90.0 km
    Depth trend
    −8.7 km
  18. 18Fiji Islands Region21°S 179°W · 5 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.96.6%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 70% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    6.6%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 21°S 179°W, 420 km SE of Suva, Fiji
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    5 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.9
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.74×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    1.43
    Correlation length
    69.8 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    98.0 km
    Depth trend
    0.1 km
  19. 19Tonga Islands21°S 175°W · 4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.46.6%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 71% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    6.6%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 21°S 175°W, 760 km ESE of Suva, Fiji
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    4 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M5.4
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.76×
    Correlation length
    23.3 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    68.6 km
    Depth trend
    −12.7 km
  20. 20Tonga Islands17°S 173°W · 3 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M4.66.6%

    Rate-model input: In the clustering-rate model the forecast reads as one input, 66% of this cell’s 30-day rate comes from its short-term term — every earlier M5+ earthquake nearby since 1973, weighted by how long ago it happened, so large old earthquakes count as well as recent ones — and the rest from its long-term rate. This describes an input, not a breakdown of the chance above.

    Chance of an M6+ earthquake in this cell, next 30 days
    6.6%
    Cell
    2° × 2° centred on 17°S 173°W, 380 km SSW of Apia, Samoa
    Recent earthquakes in the cell
    3 M2.5+ earthquakes in the last 30 days, largest M4.6
    Research statistics (not used by the forecast)

    Standard seismicity statistics of the recent catalog in this cell, shown for research context only. They do not set the probability, and no test of them as forecasts is published on this site.

    Recent rate vs. this cell’s background
    0.62×
    Gutenberg–Richter b-value
    0.99
    Correlation length
    78.8 km
    Spatial spread of recent events
    71.2 km
    Depth trend
    1.6 km

Every cell’s value is in the forecast record: eq_fcst_20261019_0600.json (the probability_grid field, row by row from the south-west corner).

About this forecast

A chance is not an alarm: a 20% chance still means that, of five such 30-day periods, four would pass without an M6+ earthquake in that cell. Compare a cell with others.

What the model is
Boosted trees over each cell’s long-term M5+ rate and its aftershock-style clustering after recent earthquakes nearby, combined with GEAR1, a published global model of long-term earthquake rates from crustal strain and past seismicity (Bird et al. 2015)
How it tested, 2023–2025
Across every cell, a cell that went on to have an M6+ earthquake was ranked above one that did not 96.9% (95% interval 96.4%–97.3%) of the time (a second look at those years).
The harder question
Among recently active cells only, where telling cells apart is hardest: 76.9% (95% interval 73.5%–79.9%).
Calibration in the test
It forecast 13% more cells with an M6+ earthquake than there were (ratio 1.13, 95% interval 1.03–1.25).
Model version
eq_operational_S2_gear1_v2-ecb87f020f99
Full method
Methods: earthquake

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The forecast’s record: its data sources, model version, and hashes of its inputs and output.

Open the evidence

See the track record

How this model scored on past years, and how its live forecasts score as their 30-day windows close.

Open the track record

Re-run it yourself

Download this forecast’s frozen record: the published numbers, the model version, and the inputs it used (for earthquakes, the catalog window and its hash).

Download eq_fcst_20261019_0600.json