{
  "forecast_id": "to_fcst_20260413_1513",
  "hazard": "tornado",
  "issued_at": "2026-04-13T15:13:49Z",
  "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
  "forecast_horizon_hours": 24,
  "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
  "scoring_tier_label": "Analytic coherence model (physics-only, no ML)",
  "coherence_source": "hrrr",
  "n_active_storms": 9,
  "top_probability": 0.2193,
  "source_artifacts": [
    "/data/live-tornadoes.json",
    "/data/tornado-storms.geojson"
  ],
  "storms": [
    {
      "storm_id": "261168",
      "lat": 43.5507,
      "lon": -116.2405,
      "motion_east": 1.9,
      "motion_south": 0.7,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.2193,
      "risk_band": "moderate",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 30.0,
      "ebshear": 8.0,
      "srh01": 106.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.009,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.2193
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.2193,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": null,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 5,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -116.45,
              43.83
            ],
            [
              -116.41,
              43.83
            ],
            [
              -116.35,
              43.8
            ],
            [
              -116.33,
              43.78
            ],
            [
              -116.31,
              43.78
            ],
            [
              -116.28,
              43.75
            ],
            [
              -116.26,
              43.75
            ],
            [
              -116.26,
              43.74
            ],
            [
              -116.21,
              43.69
            ],
            [
              -116.22,
              43.55
            ],
            [
              -116.2,
              43.53
            ],
            [
              -116.14,
              43.54
            ],
            [
              -116.13,
              43.56
            ],
            [
              -116.05,
              43.56
            ],
            [
              -116.05,
              43.52
            ],
            [
              -116.02,
              43.5
            ],
            [
              -116.03,
              43.47
            ],
            [
              -116.01,
              43.45
            ],
            [
              -115.99,
              43.45
            ],
            [
              -115.96,
              43.42
            ],
            [
              -115.97,
              43.39
            ],
            [
              -115.98,
              43.38
            ],
            [
              -116.01,
              43.38
            ],
            [
              -116.03,
              43.41
            ],
            [
              -116.05,
              43.42
            ],
            [
              -116.09,
              43.42
            ],
            [
              -116.1,
              43.41
            ],
            [
              -116.1,
              43.37
            ],
            [
              -116.11,
              43.36
            ],
            [
              -116.15,
              43.36
            ],
            [
              -116.16,
              43.37
            ],
            [
              -116.17,
              43.36
            ],
            [
              -116.18,
              43.37
            ],
            [
              -116.22,
              43.38
            ],
            [
              -116.28,
              43.43
            ],
            [
              -116.3,
              43.43
            ],
            [
              -116.31,
              43.44
            ],
            [
              -116.35,
              43.42
            ],
            [
              -116.4,
              43.45
            ],
            [
              -116.42,
              43.45
            ],
            [
              -116.43,
              43.49
            ],
            [
              -116.44,
              43.5
            ],
            [
              -116.44,
              43.52
            ],
            [
              -116.4,
              43.56
            ],
            [
              -116.33,
              43.57
            ],
            [
              -116.31,
              43.59
            ],
            [
              -116.29,
              43.64
            ],
            [
              -116.32,
              43.66
            ],
            [
              -116.33,
              43.65
            ],
            [
              -116.35,
              43.65
            ],
            [
              -116.36,
              43.66
            ],
            [
              -116.4,
              43.66
            ],
            [
              -116.43,
              43.69
            ],
            [
              -116.45,
              43.69
            ],
            [
              -116.47,
              43.71
            ],
            [
              -116.47,
              43.82
            ],
            [
              -116.45,
              43.83
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "261443",
      "lat": 45.7007,
      "lon": -75.9445,
      "motion_east": 5.9,
      "motion_south": -3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.1824,
      "risk_band": "moderate",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 75.0,
      "ebshear": 7.0,
      "srh01": 353.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.002,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.1824
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.1824,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": null,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -76.04,
              45.8
            ],
            [
              -76.01,
              45.8
            ],
            [
              -75.99,
              45.79
            ],
            [
              -75.96,
              45.76
            ],
            [
              -75.95,
              45.76
            ],
            [
              -75.94,
              45.74
            ],
            [
              -75.92,
              45.73
            ],
            [
              -75.83,
              45.73
            ],
            [
              -75.82,
              45.72
            ],
            [
              -75.8,
              45.72
            ],
            [
              -75.78,
              45.7
            ],
            [
              -75.78,
              45.64
            ],
            [
              -75.8,
              45.63
            ],
            [
              -75.83,
              45.63
            ],
            [
              -75.87,
              45.61
            ],
            [
              -75.91,
              45.61
            ],
            [
              -75.92,
              45.6
            ],
            [
              -75.93,
              45.61
            ],
            [
              -75.95,
              45.61
            ],
            [
              -75.97,
              45.64
            ],
            [
              -75.97,
              45.66
            ],
            [
              -75.99,
              45.68
            ],
            [
              -76.01,
              45.69
            ],
            [
              -76.06,
              45.69
            ],
            [
              -76.06,
              45.7
            ],
            [
              -76.09,
              45.73
            ],
            [
              -76.09,
              45.76
            ],
            [
              -76.08,
              45.78
            ],
            [
              -76.04,
              45.8
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "261484",
      "lat": 45.0356,
      "lon": -74.9889,
      "motion_east": 5.9,
      "motion_south": -3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.1824,
      "risk_band": "moderate",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 31.0,
      "ebshear": 16.0,
      "srh01": 317.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.1824
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.1824,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": null,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -75.01,
              45.07
            ],
            [
              -74.93,
              45.07
            ],
            [
              -74.93,
              45.02
            ],
            [
              -74.97,
              45.01
            ],
            [
              -74.98,
              45.0
            ],
            [
              -75.01,
              45.0
            ],
            [
              -75.03,
              45.02
            ],
            [
              -75.03,
              45.06
            ],
            [
              -75.01,
              45.07
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "261483",
      "lat": 37.7311,
      "lon": -85.5311,
      "motion_east": 5.9,
      "motion_south": -3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.1146,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 316.0,
      "ebshear": 17.0,
      "srh01": 191.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.1146
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.1146,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": null,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -85.54,
              37.76
            ],
            [
              -85.51,
              37.76
            ],
            [
              -85.5,
              37.75
            ],
            [
              -85.5,
              37.71
            ],
            [
              -85.52,
              37.7
            ],
            [
              -85.55,
              37.7
            ],
            [
              -85.56,
              37.71
            ],
            [
              -85.56,
              37.73
            ],
            [
              -85.54,
              37.76
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "261481",
      "lat": 40.7033,
      "lon": -92.2544,
      "motion_east": 5.9,
      "motion_south": -3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.1002,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 2097.0,
      "ebshear": 26.0,
      "srh01": 161.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.002,
      "mesh": 0.09,
      "flash_rate": 1.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.1002
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.1002,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": null,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -92.27,
              40.74
            ],
            [
              -92.23,
              40.74
            ],
            [
              -92.21,
              40.71
            ],
            [
              -92.22,
              40.68
            ],
            [
              -92.24,
              40.66
            ],
            [
              -92.27,
              40.66
            ],
            [
              -92.29,
              40.68
            ],
            [
              -92.29,
              40.72
            ],
            [
              -92.27,
              40.74
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "261482",
      "lat": 40.332,
      "lon": -91.675,
      "motion_east": 5.9,
      "motion_south": -3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0975,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 1893.0,
      "ebshear": 28.0,
      "srh01": 155.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.002,
      "mesh": 0.21,
      "flash_rate": 8.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0975
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0975,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": null,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -91.75,
              40.37
            ],
            [
              -91.69,
              40.37
            ],
            [
              -91.68,
              40.36
            ],
            [
              -91.6,
              40.34
            ],
            [
              -91.59,
              40.33
            ],
            [
              -91.59,
              40.28
            ],
            [
              -91.62,
              40.26
            ],
            [
              -91.73,
              40.31
            ],
            [
              -91.75,
              40.33
            ],
            [
              -91.75,
              40.37
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "261457",
      "lat": 43.7959,
      "lon": -116.8841,
      "motion_east": 4.0,
      "motion_south": -1.0,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0762,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 0.0,
      "ebshear": 0.0,
      "srh01": 101.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0762
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0762,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": null,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -116.83,
              43.85
            ],
            [
              -116.83,
              43.84
            ],
            [
              -116.81,
              43.83
            ],
            [
              -116.83,
              43.8
            ],
            [
              -116.83,
              43.78
            ],
            [
              -116.85,
              43.76
            ],
            [
              -116.89,
              43.75
            ],
            [
              -116.9,
              43.74
            ],
            [
              -116.96,
              43.74
            ],
            [
              -116.97,
              43.75
            ],
            [
              -116.97,
              43.79
            ],
            [
              -116.96,
              43.8
            ],
            [
              -116.92,
              43.8
            ],
            [
              -116.91,
              43.81
            ],
            [
              -116.89,
              43.81
            ],
            [
              -116.85,
              43.83
            ],
            [
              -116.83,
              43.85
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "261109",
      "lat": 48.9127,
      "lon": -106.7635,
      "motion_east": 5.9,
      "motion_south": -3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0759,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 5.0,
      "ebshear": 1.0,
      "srh01": 79.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0759
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0759,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.0,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 6,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -106.71,
              49.01
            ],
            [
              -106.66,
              49.01
            ],
            [
              -106.65,
              49.0
            ],
            [
              -106.53,
              49.0
            ],
            [
              -106.5,
              48.98
            ],
            [
              -106.5,
              48.93
            ],
            [
              -106.52,
              48.91
            ],
            [
              -106.6,
              48.91
            ],
            [
              -106.61,
              48.92
            ],
            [
              -106.65,
              48.92
            ],
            [
              -106.66,
              48.91
            ],
            [
              -106.73,
              48.9
            ],
            [
              -106.82,
              48.8
            ],
            [
              -106.86,
              48.8
            ],
            [
              -106.87,
              48.81
            ],
            [
              -106.94,
              48.81
            ],
            [
              -106.99,
              48.85
            ],
            [
              -107.0,
              48.87
            ],
            [
              -106.98,
              48.89
            ],
            [
              -106.94,
              48.91
            ],
            [
              -106.91,
              48.91
            ],
            [
              -106.9,
              48.92
            ],
            [
              -106.89,
              48.91
            ],
            [
              -106.88,
              48.92
            ],
            [
              -106.84,
              48.92
            ],
            [
              -106.71,
              49.01
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "261438",
      "lat": 47.2084,
      "lon": -117.0903,
      "motion_east": 3.3,
      "motion_south": 3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260413_150041 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0759,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 13.0,
      "ebshear": 4.0,
      "srh01": 88.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.002,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0759
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0759,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": null,
        "grad_tau": null,
        "torsion": null,
        "alignment": null,
        "S_field": null,
        "Gamma_field": null,
        "S_over_Gamma": null,
        "Da": null,
        "E_coh": null,
        "singularity_count": 0.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 0,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": false
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "hrrr",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -117.16,
              47.37
            ],
            [
              -117.12,
              47.36
            ],
            [
              -117.13,
              47.29
            ],
            [
              -117.15,
              47.27
            ],
            [
              -117.15,
              47.25
            ],
            [
              -117.11,
              47.21
            ],
            [
              -117.09,
              47.2
            ],
            [
              -117.09,
              47.17
            ],
            [
              -117.07,
              47.15
            ],
            [
              -117.05,
              47.15
            ],
            [
              -116.98,
              47.2
            ],
            [
              -116.94,
              47.2
            ],
            [
              -116.93,
              47.19
            ],
            [
              -116.93,
              47.15
            ],
            [
              -116.94,
              47.14
            ],
            [
              -116.94,
              47.12
            ],
            [
              -116.99,
              47.07
            ],
            [
              -117.01,
              47.06
            ],
            [
              -117.07,
              47.06
            ],
            [
              -117.07,
              47.12
            ],
            [
              -117.1,
              47.14
            ],
            [
              -117.13,
              47.14
            ],
            [
              -117.15,
              47.15
            ],
            [
              -117.18,
              47.18
            ],
            [
              -117.19,
              47.21
            ],
            [
              -117.21,
              47.23
            ],
            [
              -117.21,
              47.29
            ],
            [
              -117.18,
              47.32
            ],
            [
              -117.19,
              47.34
            ],
            [
              -117.18,
              47.36
            ],
            [
              -117.16,
              47.37
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    }
  ]
}