{
  "forecast_id": "to_fcst_20260406_1052",
  "hazard": "tornado",
  "issued_at": "2026-04-06T10:52:45Z",
  "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
  "forecast_horizon_hours": 24,
  "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
  "scoring_tier_label": "Analytic coherence model (physics-only, no ML)",
  "coherence_source": "probsevere",
  "n_active_storms": 11,
  "top_probability": 0.0947,
  "source_artifacts": [
    "/data/live-tornadoes.json",
    "/data/tornado-storms.geojson"
  ],
  "storms": [
    {
      "storm_id": "226076",
      "lat": 30.819,
      "lon": -79.532,
      "motion_east": 6.8,
      "motion_south": 1.9,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 1322.0,
      "ebshear": 25.0,
      "srh01": 28.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.11,
      "flash_rate": 1.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.1299348920583725,
        "grad_tau": 0.017272746190428734,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.002418184420093894,
        "S_field": 0.0468076653778553,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.1872306615114212,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 4,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -79.55,
              30.87
            ],
            [
              -79.49,
              30.86
            ],
            [
              -79.46,
              30.82
            ],
            [
              -79.46,
              30.8
            ],
            [
              -79.51,
              30.77
            ],
            [
              -79.55,
              30.77
            ],
            [
              -79.57,
              30.78
            ],
            [
              -79.59,
              30.81
            ],
            [
              -79.59,
              30.84
            ],
            [
              -79.55,
              30.87
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226150",
      "lat": 30.3391,
      "lon": -79.5791,
      "motion_east": 6.9,
      "motion_south": 1.4,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 1605.0,
      "ebshear": 5.0,
      "srh01": 9.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.05,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.14478571712970734,
        "grad_tau": 0.0114438496530056,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.0013160427333787084,
        "S_field": 0.05384717136621475,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.215388685464859,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 2,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -79.59,
              30.38
            ],
            [
              -79.55,
              30.37
            ],
            [
              -79.54,
              30.36
            ],
            [
              -79.54,
              30.31
            ],
            [
              -79.55,
              30.31
            ],
            [
              -79.57,
              30.29
            ],
            [
              -79.59,
              30.29
            ],
            [
              -79.62,
              30.33
            ],
            [
              -79.61,
              30.35
            ],
            [
              -79.62,
              30.36
            ],
            [
              -79.59,
              30.38
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226151",
      "lat": 28.2119,
      "lon": -93.751,
      "motion_east": 8.6,
      "motion_south": -4.0,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 52.0,
      "ebshear": 29.0,
      "srh01": 51.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.020089678466320038,
        "grad_tau": 0.0018130576936528087,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.00046232971362769604,
        "S_field": 0.007658241782337427,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.03063296712934971,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 2,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -93.74,
              28.31
            ],
            [
              -93.7,
              28.31
            ],
            [
              -93.68,
              28.3
            ],
            [
              -93.63,
              28.25
            ],
            [
              -93.62,
              28.25
            ],
            [
              -93.63,
              28.22
            ],
            [
              -93.66,
              28.2
            ],
            [
              -93.71,
              28.2
            ],
            [
              -93.72,
              28.21
            ],
            [
              -93.75,
              28.21
            ],
            [
              -93.76,
              28.2
            ],
            [
              -93.76,
              28.13
            ],
            [
              -93.77,
              28.11
            ],
            [
              -93.8,
              28.09
            ],
            [
              -93.86,
              28.1
            ],
            [
              -93.89,
              28.14
            ],
            [
              -93.89,
              28.16
            ],
            [
              -93.87,
              28.2
            ],
            [
              -93.81,
              28.27
            ],
            [
              -93.78,
              28.28
            ],
            [
              -93.74,
              28.31
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226191",
      "lat": 29.9619,
      "lon": -89.8659,
      "motion_east": 5.5,
      "motion_south": -3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 6.0,
      "ebshear": 9.0,
      "srh01": 43.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.021139029413461685,
        "grad_tau": 0.0008030717144720256,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.0001726604241412133,
        "S_field": 0.0060726734809577465,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.024290693923830986,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -89.71,
              30.08
            ],
            [
              -89.67,
              30.07
            ],
            [
              -89.67,
              30.03
            ],
            [
              -89.69,
              30.01
            ],
            [
              -89.7,
              30.01
            ],
            [
              -89.72,
              29.99
            ],
            [
              -89.74,
              29.99
            ],
            [
              -89.76,
              29.97
            ],
            [
              -89.78,
              29.97
            ],
            [
              -89.79,
              29.96
            ],
            [
              -89.81,
              29.96
            ],
            [
              -89.82,
              29.95
            ],
            [
              -89.84,
              29.95
            ],
            [
              -89.88,
              29.93
            ],
            [
              -89.91,
              29.9
            ],
            [
              -89.91,
              29.88
            ],
            [
              -89.95,
              29.83
            ],
            [
              -89.97,
              29.82
            ],
            [
              -89.98,
              29.83
            ],
            [
              -90.03,
              29.83
            ],
            [
              -90.06,
              29.85
            ],
            [
              -90.08,
              29.85
            ],
            [
              -90.09,
              29.89
            ],
            [
              -90.06,
              29.93
            ],
            [
              -90.02,
              29.93
            ],
            [
              -90.0,
              29.92
            ],
            [
              -89.97,
              29.95
            ],
            [
              -89.97,
              29.96
            ],
            [
              -89.93,
              30.01
            ],
            [
              -89.89,
              30.02
            ],
            [
              -89.88,
              30.03
            ],
            [
              -89.85,
              30.03
            ],
            [
              -89.84,
              30.04
            ],
            [
              -89.8,
              30.04
            ],
            [
              -89.79,
              30.05
            ],
            [
              -89.77,
              30.05
            ],
            [
              -89.71,
              30.08
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226200",
      "lat": 28.6569,
      "lon": -79.6769,
      "motion_east": 8.6,
      "motion_south": -4.0,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 1324.0,
      "ebshear": 11.0,
      "srh01": 16.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.15226760506629944,
        "grad_tau": 0.00523264380171895,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.00041861151112243533,
        "S_field": 0.058182116597890854,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.23272846639156342,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -79.65,
              28.69
            ],
            [
              -79.65,
              28.68
            ],
            [
              -79.64,
              28.67
            ],
            [
              -79.64,
              28.65
            ],
            [
              -79.65,
              28.64
            ],
            [
              -79.65,
              28.6
            ],
            [
              -79.66,
              28.59
            ],
            [
              -79.71,
              28.6
            ],
            [
              -79.71,
              28.62
            ],
            [
              -79.73,
              28.64
            ],
            [
              -79.73,
              28.68
            ],
            [
              -79.72,
              28.7
            ],
            [
              -79.7,
              28.7
            ],
            [
              -79.68,
              28.68
            ],
            [
              -79.66,
              28.68
            ],
            [
              -79.65,
              28.69
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226202",
      "lat": 30.1309,
      "lon": -89.4609,
      "motion_east": 7.4,
      "motion_south": -3.0,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 0.0,
      "ebshear": 0.0,
      "srh01": 62.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.003,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.019707221537828445,
        "grad_tau": 0.0019647821318358183,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.0006090824608691037,
        "S_field": 0.005498247221112251,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.021992988884449005,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -89.45,
              30.18
            ],
            [
              -89.4,
              30.18
            ],
            [
              -89.38,
              30.17
            ],
            [
              -89.38,
              30.12
            ],
            [
              -89.41,
              30.1
            ],
            [
              -89.43,
              30.1
            ],
            [
              -89.47,
              30.08
            ],
            [
              -89.57,
              30.08
            ],
            [
              -89.57,
              30.12
            ],
            [
              -89.56,
              30.13
            ],
            [
              -89.45,
              30.18
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226210",
      "lat": 30.724,
      "lon": -79.447,
      "motion_east": 6.8,
      "motion_south": 1.9,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 1350.0,
      "ebshear": 20.0,
      "srh01": 37.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.001,
      "mesh": 0.1,
      "flash_rate": 1.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.14478571712970734,
        "grad_tau": 0.0114438496530056,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.0013160427333787084,
        "S_field": 0.05384717136621475,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.215388685464859,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -79.47,
              30.76
            ],
            [
              -79.44,
              30.76
            ],
            [
              -79.42,
              30.74
            ],
            [
              -79.42,
              30.71
            ],
            [
              -79.41,
              30.7
            ],
            [
              -79.43,
              30.68
            ],
            [
              -79.45,
              30.68
            ],
            [
              -79.48,
              30.7
            ],
            [
              -79.48,
              30.75
            ],
            [
              -79.47,
              30.76
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226212",
      "lat": 46.805,
      "lon": -78.3388,
      "motion_east": 8.6,
      "motion_south": -4.0,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 0.0,
      "ebshear": 0.0,
      "srh01": 0.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.0,
      "mesh": 0.08,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.00022257427917793393,
        "grad_tau": 0.00011558973346836865,
        "torsion": -0.0,
        "alignment": 0.0,
        "S_field": 2.8566160835907795e-05,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.00011426464334363118,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 1.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 1,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": false,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -78.39,
              46.84
            ],
            [
              -78.31,
              46.84
            ],
            [
              -78.3,
              46.83
            ],
            [
              -78.28,
              46.83
            ],
            [
              -78.28,
              46.75
            ],
            [
              -78.37,
              46.75
            ],
            [
              -78.39,
              46.76
            ],
            [
              -78.39,
              46.84
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226213",
      "lat": 42.758,
      "lon": -74.07,
      "motion_east": 8.6,
      "motion_south": -4.0,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 0.0,
      "ebshear": 0.0,
      "srh01": 28.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.0,
      "mesh": 0.19,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.0019342787563800812,
        "grad_tau": 3.4277803933946416e-05,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 4.798892405233346e-06,
        "S_field": 0.0007460092310793698,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.002984036924317479,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -74.11,
              42.79
            ],
            [
              -74.01,
              42.79
            ],
            [
              -74.01,
              42.71
            ],
            [
              -74.11,
              42.71
            ],
            [
              -74.11,
              42.79
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226214",
      "lat": 28.5138,
      "lon": -79.8323,
      "motion_east": 8.6,
      "motion_south": -4.0,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 1120.0,
      "ebshear": 11.0,
      "srh01": 10.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.0,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.14305076003074646,
        "grad_tau": 0.013894851319491863,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.0006947426008991897,
        "S_field": 0.0553833544254303,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.2215334177017212,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -79.88,
              28.56
            ],
            [
              -79.85,
              28.56
            ],
            [
              -79.85,
              28.52
            ],
            [
              -79.84,
              28.51
            ],
            [
              -79.79,
              28.51
            ],
            [
              -79.77,
              28.49
            ],
            [
              -79.77,
              28.48
            ],
            [
              -79.8,
              28.48
            ],
            [
              -79.81,
              28.49
            ],
            [
              -79.85,
              28.48
            ],
            [
              -79.87,
              28.49
            ],
            [
              -79.86,
              28.55
            ],
            [
              -79.88,
              28.56
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "storm_id": "226215",
      "lat": 27.238,
      "lon": -80.001,
      "motion_east": 8.6,
      "motion_south": -4.0,
      "valid_time": "20260406_103036 UTC",
      "tornado_probability": 0.0947,
      "risk_band": "low",
      "ps_tor": 0.0,
      "ps": 0.0,
      "mucape": 1159.0,
      "ebshear": 14.0,
      "srh01": 3.0,
      "maxllaz": 0.0,
      "mesh": 0.0,
      "flash_rate": 0.0,
      "top_features": [],
      "model_scores": {
        "analytic_prob": 0.0947
      },
      "coherence_score": 0.0947,
      "coherence_diagnostics": {
        "tau": 0.12255532294511795,
        "grad_tau": 0.02324107475578785,
        "torsion": 0.0,
        "alignment": 0.00034861612948589027,
        "S_field": 0.04893898591399193,
        "Gamma_field": 0.25,
        "S_over_Gamma": 0.1957559436559677,
        "Da": 17.130695343017578,
        "E_coh": 0.0,
        "singularity_count": 2.0,
        "singularity_conditions_met": 2,
        "singularity_detail": {
          "s_over_gamma": false,
          "high_gradient": false,
          "high_torsion": false,
          "positive_alignment": true,
          "high_damkohler": true
        }
      },
      "scoring_tier": "tier2_analytic",
      "coherence_source": "probsevere",
      "model_version": "tornado_storm_v1_0",
      "track_length": 1,
      "geometry": {
        "type": "Polygon",
        "coordinates": [
          [
            [
              -79.98,
              27.28
            ],
            [
              -79.95,
              27.28
            ],
            [
              -79.95,
              27.2
            ],
            [
              -79.96,
              27.19
            ],
            [
              -80.06,
              27.19
            ],
            [
              -80.06,
              27.2
            ],
            [
              -80.04,
              27.22
            ],
            [
              -80.04,
              27.27
            ],
            [
              -79.99,
              27.27
            ],
            [
              -79.98,
              27.28
            ]
          ]
        ]
      }
    }
  ]
}
