{
  "generated_at": "2026-03-13T03:00:00Z",
  "models": [
    {
      "id": "earthquake_v7_honest",
      "status": "published_honest",
      "metric": {
        "name": "AUC",
        "value": 0.733
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "earthquake_v8c",
      "status": "experimental_honest",
      "metric": {
        "name": "AUC",
        "value": 0.737
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hurricane_ri_v8_1_honest",
      "status": "published_honest",
      "metric": {
        "name": "AUC",
        "value": 0.938
      },
      "eval_protocol": "advisory_time_rolling_holdout",
      "eval_holdouts": [2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024],
      "auc_range": [0.910, 0.957],
      "brier_skill_score": 0.290,
      "delta_vs_ofcl": 0.009,
      "n_features": 65,
      "architecture": "50-bag logistic + histogram GBT (depth 3+4) + Platt calibration",
      "training_data": "ATCF AL advisories 2000-2024, NOAA OISST v2.1 SST, ONI index",
      "n_cases": 9714
    },
    {
      "id": "hurricane_v4_retired",
      "status": "retired_honest",
      "metric": {
        "name": "AUC",
        "value": 0.967
      },
      "note": "IBTrACS best-track evaluation — not advisory-time. Superseded by hurricane_ri_v8_1_honest."
    },
    {
      "id": "tornado_v5_honest",
      "status": "published_honest",
      "metric": {
        "name": "AUC",
        "value": 0.644
      }
    }
  ]
}